HSBC Just Upgraded Intel to Buy and Raised Price Target from $50 to $95: Is the Comeback Real?

• HSBC upgraded Intel (INTC) from Hold to Buy with a $95 price target, citing underappreciated server CPU momentum from the second quarter.

• Intel’s server CPU thesis flies in the face of a cautious consensus: the average analyst target is just $52.26, making HSBC’s decision a significant outlier in terms of conviction.

• The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks. Get them here for FREE.

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) just got a strong endorsement from HSBC, and analyst Frank Lee upgraded INTC stock from Hold to Buy and nearly doubled the price target from $50 to $95. The change in rating indicates a change in conviction. The call comes just a day after Stifel raised its target from $42 to $65, which maintained a Hold rating. HSBC goes further and reasoning matters.

Intel shares are up 80% so far this year, closing at $65.70 on April 20. HSBC acknowledges that foundry optimism has fueled the rally. The company’s upgrade thesis, however, revolves around something it believes the market hasn’t fully appreciated: Intel’s server CPU push.

HSBC’s Frank Lee argues that Intel has “breakthrough server CPU potential” starting in the second quarter. The company sees server CPU shipment growth and price increases as the driver behind significant upside earnings potential. According to HSBC, this boost is “not included in the share price.”

READ: The analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named its top 10 AI stocks

HSBC believes the increase in server CPUs will drive profit growth even as foundry uncertainty persists. The company separates the server CPU story from the foundry narrative and argues that the former stands on its own.

Intel’s data center and artificial intelligence segment grew 9% year over year in the fourth quarter of 2025, reaching $4.74 billion and positioning itself as the company’s strongest segment. Revenue for full fiscal 2025 was $52.85 billion, virtually unchanged year over year. CEO Lip-Bu Tan noted in January: “Our conviction in the essential role of CPUs in the AI ​​era continues to grow.”

Intel’s market capitalization stands at $330.73 billion as of April 20. The company got $8.9 billion in funding from the US CHIPS Act and has as much Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) and SoftBank as recent investors, with NVIDIA investing $5 billion and SoftBank investing $2 billion in Intel common stock.

Intel’s guidance for the first quarter of 2026 calls for revenue of between $11.7 billion and $12.7 billion, with supply expected to be at an all-time low before improving in the second quarter and beyond. HSBC’s improvement effectively advances that inflection. At Polymarket, the prediction market currently prices a 90% chance that Intel will beat its next quarterly earnings, up from 74% on April 16.

The broader analyst consensus remains cautious. Analysts’ average price target for INTC stock stands at just $52.26, and 33 analysts rate the stock a Hold. HSBC’s $95 target is a significant outlier, which could reflect genuine insight into an underrated catalyst or prove premature if server CPU ramp timelines slip.

You may find Intel stock attractive if you believe the server CPU thesis plays out in the second quarter and the data center segment maintains its growth trajectory. HSBC’s upgrade carries weight precisely because it is a rating change, not just a numerical revision. Intel Foundry posted an operating loss of $2.51 billion in Q4 2025, and non-GAAP EPS guidance for Q1 2026 is $0.00, reminding investors that the recovery is still a work in progress.

Keep an eye out for Intel’s Q2 server CPU shipment data to confirm HSBC’s thesis. If Intel’s data center segment accelerates beyond the 9% growth it posted in the fourth quarter, the upgrade narrative gains credibility. However, if supply constraints persist longer than expected, the gap between HSBC’s $95 target and $52 consensus could close in the wrong direction.

Wall Street is investing billions in AI, but most investors are buying the wrong stocks. The analyst who first identified NVIDIA as a buyback in 2010, before its 28,000% run, just identified 10 AI startups that he thinks could generate huge returns from here. One dominates an equipment market valued at $100 billion. Another is solving the biggest bottleneck holding back AI data centers. A third is a pure play in an optical networking market that will quadruple. Most investors haven’t heard of half of these names. Get the free list of 10 stocks here.