Washington– President Donald Trump claims America has increasingly benefited from trade with China, which has greatly reduced tensions over rare earth minerals, tariffs and taxes. Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence Which could lead to a rupture of relations between the two largest economies in the world.
Trump leaves Tuesday for Summit in Beijing With Chinese leader Xi Jinping, in what may be the first of four meetings this year.
“We do a lot of business with China and we make a lot of money,” Trump said last week. “We’re making a lot of money — it’s different than it used to be.”
The summit aims primarily to maintain the stability of economic relations, with only a modest policy announcement expected. A The trade truce reached last October It is likely to be extended, while China may announce it Plan to buy US soybeansAnd beef and Boeing planes. US officials have also raised the idea of creating a trade council to keep the two sides talking about economic issues.
Some in the Trump administration believe that “the more important outcome than any set of accomplishments is stability and space for continued engagement, to build domestic resilience and facilitate future deal-making,” said Brett Vitterly, managing director at China-focused Asia Advisory Group.
Participation will be only the first step towards addressing the problem Competition between the United States and Chinalike Mutual definitionsAmnesty International and Building an electric carand Iran war It can turn relationships upside down.
Despite Trump’s claims about making money, China bought nearly $50 billion more US products last year than it did in 2022, according to US Census Bureau data.
It reflects some of this decline Beijing stops buying soybeans During last year’s trade war. The Trump administration has made clear that it wants this Support American farmers And factories by making China import more from the United States, with the aim of narrowing the trade balance gap, which totaled $202 billion last year.
The United States also now imports more goods from Taiwan than from China, a change caused in part by an artificial intelligence race that has prompted American companies to buy computer chips and servers from China. The autonomous island.
But going back to Trump’s first term, China also began routing its U.S.-bound products through other Asian countries, while U.S. companies shifted supply chains for computers and other electronics to Vietnam and India.
China’s share of goods Imports into the United States fell from 22% at the start of Trump’s first term in 2017 to just 7.5% in the first three months of this year, according to government data analyzed by Chad Bown, a senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and co-author of How to Win the Trade War.
US Trade Representative Jamison Greer said he “highlighted” in an April 30 phone call with Chinese Vice Premier He Leveng the value of a new “government-to-government trade council.”
Greer noted that the council could improve trade in goods without national security concerns. That might mean agricultural products, for example, but not computer chips or other sensitive technology.
Initiative can facilitate problem solving Commercial disputes And helping American efforts to sell more to China. It may help prevent a recurrence of last year when Trump raised tariff rates on Chinese goods By 145% before that Finalizing the truce In an October meeting with Xi in South Korea.
The council would also give the Trump administration an alternative to aggressive tariff hikes, which have become a logistical and legal problem. the The Supreme Court ruled that Trump lacked authority Many of last year’s tariffs were unilaterally imposed, while the alternative tariffs that followed were temporary Deemed illegal by a federal court Last week.
The Trump administration says the United States and China would need to get approval at home to create a council that could manage tens of billions of dollars in trade. Administration officials also want to establish an investment forum to discuss financing operations in each country.
The White House says about 17 CEOs are traveling to China as part of the US delegation, including Tesla’s Elon Musk, Apple’s Tim Cook, and Boeing’s Kelly Ortberg.
In some ways, the Trump and Xi Jinping governments were talking to each other. Trump assumes that America is capable of this Maintaining its superiority over artificial intelligenceTherefore, he believes that the trade imbalance is the major issue that needs to be solved. But Xi sees the world disrupted by climate change and the Iranian war, which are potential transformations Giving impetus to Chinese technologies Such as solar panels and electric vehicles.
“Washington and Beijing are competing at different levels and in different arenas, with different theories of victory,” said Michael Sobolik, a senior fellow specializing in US-China relations at the Hudson Institute, a conservative think tank. “President Trump has used tariffs not as a weapon against China, but as leverage to secure a trade deal. Xi Jinping is seeking to win a cold war with the United States.”
The US-Israel war against Iran is also leading to an inflection point on energy, said Ali Wein, senior research and advocacy adviser on US-China relations at the International Crisis Group.
The Trump administration depends on the world continuing to depend on oil and natural gas, while China sees this High prices after Interruption of power shipments in Strait of Hormuz As it supports the green energy transition that favors its industrial strategy.
“Structural frictions between the United States and China are increasing in number and intensity,” Wayne said.
Many potential tensions could easily spoil the cheerful talk of friendship, raising questions about whether any tangible progress can be achieved at the summit on issues such as:
– China controls the majority of rare earth extraction operations and almost all processing operations for those metals that are widely needed for electronics. The Trump administration is trying to do just that Developing its production of rare earth elements With new partnerships and investments in companies, a strategy that will unfold over several years.
-The United States pays to Limit China’s access to the most advanced computer chips. These chips, designed by companies like Nvidia and AMD, have the processing power to further develop artificial intelligence.
— China’s dominance as an automobile manufacturer. Its global auto exports increased by 21% last year, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. China can sell electric cars much cheaper than automakers in the United States, Germany, Italy, Japan and South Korea.
— Definitions. After the Supreme Court struck down Trump’s tariffs, the administration launched national security investigations under a provision of the 1974 trade law to impose sanctions on the United States. Imposing new definitions Based on excess industrial capacity and efforts to prevent forced labor that can withstand legal scrutiny.
— US sanctions on Chinese oil refinery And dozens of tankers and shipping companies for their involvement in transporting Iranian oil. Beijing responded to the action earlier this month by demanding that no one comply with US sanctions against Chinese companies. The two countries also compete to manage the Panama Canal.