A report prepared by the United Kingdom Met Office and published on Thursday by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) says that there are an 86 percent chance that at least one year between 2026 and 2030 will surpass 2024 as the hottest year on record.
also found There is a 91 percent chance that average global temperatures will temporarily exceed 1.5 degrees Celsius. above pre-industrial levels for at least one of the next five years.
The 1.5°C mark is a key benchmark under the Paris Agreement on climate change, and scientists warn against exceeding it for prolonged periods. dramatically increase risks of extreme weather conditionsecosystem collapse, food insecurity and displacement.
Climate goals are still achievable
Such temporary failures do not mean that the Paris Agreement’s long-term climate goals are unattainable, since the agreement refers to sustained warming over decades rather than individual years.
Still, the The forecasts highlight the accelerating pace of global warming and the increasing frequency of extreme heat events..
Annual global temperatures between 2026 and 2030 are expected to range between 1.3°C and 1.9°C above the 1850-1900 average.
The report says there is also a 75 percent chance that average warming over the entire five-year period will exceed 1.5°C.
“El Niño is forecast for late 2026, increasing the chances that the following year, 2027, will be the next record year”said Leon Hermanson, lead author of the report.
The melting of Arctic ice sheets, such as those in Greenland (pictured), is accelerating as global temperatures rise.
Arctic warming accelerates
Projections that the The Arctic will continue to warm much faster than the rest of the planet also sounding alarms.
Temperatures across the region over the next five Northern Hemisphere winters are forecast to average 2.8°C above the 1991-2020 baseline, more than three and a half times the projected global average increase over the same period.
Scientists also predicted continued declines in Arctic sea ice, particularly in the Barents Sea, Bering Sea, and Sea of Okhotsk. The loss of sea ice is important because it accelerates warming by reducing the Arctic’s ability to reflect sunlight, while altering ecosystems, weather patterns and livelihoods in the polar regions.
Changing rain patterns
The report noted increasing changes in global rainfall patterns consistent with a warming climate.
Above-average rainfall is expected in parts of the Sahel, northern Europe, Alaska and Siberia between 2026 and 2030, while drier conditions are forecast for the Amazon region and parts of the subtropics.
Wetter conditions are also likely at higher northern latitudes during the upcoming winter seasons.
The forecasts are intended to help governments, regional climate centers and national meteorological agencies plan for risks that are no longer distant projections, but increasingly part of the near-term global climate outlook.
The report was produced by the UK Met Office as the WMO’s lead center for annual to decadal climate prediction.