According to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), there is an 80 percent chance of El Niño conditions emerging between June and August and a 90 percent chance of this happening thereafter.
“This update is important because El Niño is a major driver of global weather and climate patterns.“said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo. “El Niño’s footprint travels far beyond its origins in the Pacific Ocean, impacting agriculture, energy supplies, trade, water resources, supply chains and livelihoods across entire regions.”
At 6°C above average, tropical Pacific Ocean temperature readings are fueling concerns that El Niño could feed on this additional heat and devastate vulnerable and unprepared communities around the world.
The last El Niño in 2023-24 was one of the five strongest on record and contributed to the record global temperatures recorded in 2024, Ms Saulo noted.
According to the WMO, “there is no evidence that climate change will increase the frequency or intensity of El Niño events,” but it may amplify the associated impacts because a warmer ocean and atmosphere provide more energy and moisture for extreme weather events such as heat waves and heavy rainfall.
Preparing for El Niño
“We understand El Niño; we can prepare much better for El Niño thanks to science and investment by many countries to be well prepared,” the WMO chief told reporters in Geneva. “But in addition to El Niño, there are extreme events and those extreme events require more and more (investment).”
Together with meteorological agencies around the world, WMO’s role in the coming months involves monitoring conditions to inform decision-making by governments, humanitarian agencies and other climate-sensitive sectors.
“Advance seasonal forecasts and early warnings are vital to saving lives and cushioning the impact on our economies and communities,” Ms. Saulo insisted.
The Boy and The Girl
Both El Niño and La Niña are opposite phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), one of the most powerful natural weather patterns on Earth.
El Niño is characterized by a warming of ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. It usually occurs every two to seven years and lasts between nine and 12 months.
It typically begins to develop between March and June and reaches its maximum intensity between November and February, with impacts on global temperatures typically being most pronounced in the second year after its development.
ENSO events are divided into four categories: weak, moderate, strong or very strong. “Even a moderate El Niño makes some weather and climate events more likely,” the WMO said.