With that in mind, I’m not overreacting to the Rams loss, but I’m putting a lot of weight on the Patriots, Bears and Packers wins.
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And it’s time we talk seriously about the Chiefs and the Ravens. Here’s how the ALLCITY NFL Power Rankings and tiers are developing as we head into December:
Super Bowl contenders
While more teams may still join the party, these four teams appear to have enough to make it to Santa Clara.
1. Los Angeles Rams (1) (9-3) – Despite a bad loss in Carolina, the Rams still appear to be the most complete team in a fairly open league.
2. Buffaloes (4) (8-4) – The Bills seem to be back on track and have the league’s number one rushing attack, but we’ve said it before.
3. Seattle Seahawks (5) (9-3) – Seattle is complete on both sides of the ball, and while I’m still not sure I trust Sam Darnold in big games, they have to be taken seriously.
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4. New England Patriots (8) (11-2) – When you have 11 wins and your quarterback is the MVP favorite, you are a Super Bowl contender.
More to prove
These teams cannot be ruled out yet, but they have at least one major weakness and need to prove that they are serious contenders.
5. Denver Broncos (6) (10-2) – The Broncos are getting closer to reaching the level of Super Bowl contenders, but an overtime win over a bad Commanders team playing with a backup quarterback won’t do it.
6. Chicago Bears (11) (9-3) – The Bears took advantage of their chance to “prove it” in Philadelphia and were able to keep rolling in Green Bay.
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7. Green Bay Packers (12) (8-3-1) – Are the Packers reaching Super Bowl form or will they continue to be inconsistent? Sunday’s game against the Bears will tell us a lot.
8. Philadelphia Eagles (3) (8-4) – A poor offense and an injury to Jalen Carter could derail this team’s momentum. One could argue that they shouldn’t be in the top 10.
9. Detroit Lions (2) (8-5) – In the offseason, I wondered if the Lions had already missed their Super Bowl window. It’s early December and I’m still wondering.
10. San Francisco 49ers (14) (8-4) – While I still question the 49ers defense, they are proving to be well-coached enough to get back into the top 10.
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11. Houston Texans (17) (7-5) – The offense still has more to prove, but the Texans probably have the best defense in the league.
12. Dallas Cowboys (18) (6-6-1) – It’s probably time to get serious about the Cowboys. Quinnen Williams has changed that defense and Matt Eberflus is still a good coordinator.
13. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13) (7-5) – The Bucs went through a tough three-game stretch, but are still a good team dealing with a ton of injuries.
14. Indianapolis Colts (9) (8-4) – Will the Colts miss the playoffs?
15. Jacksonville Jaguars (15) (8-4) – This looks like a must-win game against the Colts.
Fatally flawed
These teams have terrible flaws on one side of the ball.
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16. Los Angeles Chargers (16) (8-4) – Losing both starting tackles has hurt this team all year, but a win over the Eagles on Monday night could change the narrative.
17. Kansas City Chiefs (7) (6-6) – Okay, we gave the Chiefs the benefit of the doubt for quite some time. Officially I have many doubts.
18. Baltimore Ravens (10) (6-6) – Same goes for the Ravens after correctly calling the Bengals upset last week. It’s just not Lamar Jackson’s year.
19. Pittsburgh Steelers (19) (6-6) – The Steelers are almost in false hope territory.
Holding on to (false) hope
You can’t count these teams out just yet, but you shouldn’t get too excited either.
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20. Carolina Panthers (20) (7-6) – It’s no longer a false hope to think the Panthers could win the NFC South, but anything beyond that is a major stretch.
21. Miami Dolphins (22) (5-7) – Apparently it’s not quite over for the Dolphins, but it still feels a little late for a team that was left for dead.
It’s over
We can safely say that neither of these teams will make the playoffs and they will need to have difficult conversations about the future.
22. Cincinnati Bengals (24) (4-8) – The Bengals can’t get completely buried with Joe Burrow back, but they have to get past the Bills first.
23. Atlanta Falcons (21) (4-8) – Okay, that’s all. The Falcons are finished.
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24. Minnesota Vikings (23) (4-8) – At least JJ McCarthy is back this week. They really need to see some development in him over these last five games.
25. Arizona Cardinals (25) (3-9) – Jacoby Brissett makes the Cardinals more fun, but they still don’t win games.
26. Washington Commanders (26) (3-9) – At this point, it might make more sense to shut down Jayden Daniels for the rest of the season.
27. New York Jets (30) (3-9) – The Jets made a mistake and fell out of the race for the first pick.
28. Cleveland Browns (27) (3-9) – Sunday’s game against the Titans could be the last winnable game on the schedule.
Race for No. 1
There’s not much left to say about these teams. At this point, the most important thing is to secure the first overall pick.
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29. New York Giants (28) (2-11) – The Giants continue to float just above the bottom.
30. Las Vegas Raiders (29) (2-10) – The Raiders need an overhaul this offseason.
31. New Orleans Saints (31) (2-10) – There is not a single position group on this roster that inspires optimism.
32. Tennessee Titans (32) (1-11) – The Titans are still covering spreads, but that’s all they’re making right now.
Adam Hoge is the ALLCITY NFL analyst and covers the Chicago Bears for CHGO. You can email him at hoge@allchgo.com and follow him on X @adamhoge.