AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB), headquartered in Arlington, Virginia, is a Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) that owns, develops, redevelops, acquires and manages high-quality multifamily apartment communities. It is valued at a market capitalization of $25.2 billion.
This residential REIT has lagged the broader market over the past 52 weeks. AVB shares have fallen 18.3% during this period, while the broader S&P 500 index ($SPX) has gained 12.3%. Additionally, so far this year, the stock is down 1.8%, while SPX is up marginally.
To narrow the focus, AVB also underperformed the iShares Residential and Multi-Sector Real Estate ETF (REZ), which gained 5.4% over the past 52 weeks and 7.6% year over year.
On February 4, AVB reported its fourth-quarter results and its shares plunged 4.6% in the following trading session. The company’s core FFO per share improved 1.8% year over year to $2.85, beating consensus estimates by a penny. Additionally, its residential same-store revenue increased 1.8% from the prior-year quarter to $680.5 million, while its residential same-store NOI increased 1.3%, reaching $467.1 million.
For fiscal 2026, which ends in December, analysts expect AVB’s FFO per share to remain stable at $11.24 compared to the prior-year quarter. The company’s history of FFO surprises is mixed. It surpassed consensus estimates in three of the last four quarters, but missed them in the other quarter.
Among the 23 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is “Moderate Buy,” which is based on six “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy” and 16 “Hold” ratings.
The setup is less bullish than a month ago, with seven analysts suggesting a “Strong Buy” rating.
On February 13, Citigroup Inc. (C) analyst Nicholas Joseph maintained a “Neutral” rating on AVB, but lowered his price target to $198, indicating potential upside of 11.6% from current levels.
The average price target of $198.18 suggests 11.7% upside potential from current levels, while its street high price target of $222.50 suggests 25.4% upside potential from current levels.
On the date of publication, Neharika Jain had no (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com