There were double-digit percentage gains in silver and natural gas. Cocoa, frozen concentrated orange juice, Bitcoin and Ethereum fell more than 10% in November.
Silver futures posted a 17.25% gain in November, while the other three precious metals rose.
The daily chart of COMEX silver futures for March 2026 delivery highlights the explosive gain on November 28, which took silver to a high of $57.245 an ounce. Silver futures closed the month at $57,163, the highest nominal price in history.
Meanwhile, near-February gold futures rose 5.59% to above $4,250, but remained below October’s record high. Platinum and palladium posted gains of 6.96% and 2.21%, respectively.
The USDA finally released a November WASDE report after the government shutdown, which was slightly bullish for soybeans and corn, but remained bearish for wheat prices. Soybeans led the sector in November after President Trump and Xi’s meeting, opening the door for US soybean exports to China.
Nearby January soybean futures led the sector, gaining 2.02%. Nearby corn futures for March rose 0.84%, while CBOT March wheat futures recorded a drop of 1.82%.
The 2025 barbecue season ended in early September and cattle futures hit new all-time highs. Seasonality was the theme in the animal protein sector in October, and again in November, as live and feeder cattle, as well as lean hog futures, posted declines..
February live cattle futures led the decline in meat in November, with a drop of 4.32%. January feeder cattle futures fell 2.39% in the month ending November 28. February lean hog futures saw a 1.22% decline for the month.
While meat prices fell in the middle of the offseason amid weak demand, natural gas futures recovered as the injection season ended and cold temperatures began to increase heating demand.
Fountain: EIA
The drawdown season began during the week of Nov. 7, when natural gas inventories rose to a seasonal high of 3.96 trillion cubic feet, slightly below last season’s peak of 3.972 tcf. Natural gas futures prices reflected the uncertainty of winter demand in November.
The chart shows that NYMEX natural gas prices for January delivery rose 11.01% in November, settling at $4.85 per MMBtu, just below the critical technical resistance level at the March 2025 high of $4.908. Meanwhile, the resistance level in the January contract is well above the November close of March 10, 2025, high of $5.992 per MMBtu.
Crude oil futures fell, with January WTI futures down 3.38% and February Brent futures down 2.79%. Petroleum products followed crude oil’s decline, with gasoline futures down 2.13% and heating oil futures down 2.85%. Crack spreads remained unchanged on both sides. Rotterdam coal futures rose while ethanol fell during the month, both reflecting seasonality.
Soft commodities remain volatile: FCOJ is down 10.98% and cocoa futures are down 11.94%. Cotton fell 3.03% in the month. Global sugar was the sector leader, up 5.41%, while Arabica coffee futures rose 2.40% amid continued concerns over Brazilian crops.
Lumber futures fell 6.69% as the market approaches the heart of the slow season for construction. Bitcoin and Ethereum prices plummeted, with Bitcoin losing 16.67% and Ethereum falling 20.58% over the month.
The stock market rose on a volatile day, with the S&P 500 posting a marginal gain of 0.13%. Long-term bond futures rose just 0.32%.
As 2025 draws to a close and markets enter the depths of winter, the odds continue to favor weakness in meat and gasoline prices and strength in natural gas.
As I wrote in the September and October monthly summaries, “The U.S. natural gas futures market tends to reach seasonal highs as injection season ends and stockpile drawdown begins in November..” Volatility is likely to remain elevated in US natural gas futures on NYMEX in the coming weeks. Meanwhile, meats are on a downward trend. Given the all-time highs of recent months, live and feeder cattle futures could be more downside on a percentage basis than lean hog futures.
Keep an eye on those metals as gold, silver and copper remain in long-term bullish trends. The continued decline in the purchasing power of fiat currencies remains a factor supporting gold, silver, platinum, palladium, copper and other non-ferrous metals. Silver finds itself in uncharted territory as the market heads into December, which could be a volatile month.
The bull market in stocks continues, but the economic and geopolitical landscape presents more than a few obstacles. Meanwhile, the year-end showcase could boost stocks in the coming weeks as many fund managers are compensated based on annual results. The odds of a lower federal funds rate will increase when President Trump names a new Federal Reserve chair to replace Jerome Powell in 2026.
Expect continued volatility in the commodities asset class in December and beyond, and you will not be surprised or disappointed.
On the date of publication, Andrew Hecht had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
