Bitcoin surpassed $94,000 on Tuesday, although trading desks raised doubts about a sustained rally at the end of the year. The Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut interest rates this week, but investors are preparing for the possibility that authorities will pause after December.
A 25 basis point cut is expected at the conclusion of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy meeting on Wednesday. Futures and prediction markets indicate heightened expectations that Jerome Powell’s comments could lead to a cautious stance in January, with officials still focused on inflation as jobs data softens.
Crypto analysts say the tone of Powell’s comments may guide Bitcoin’s next big move.
Nic Puckrin, co-founder of Coin Bureau, wrote on Tuesday that an aggressive press conference could impact digital assets through the end of the year. “Despite new purchases by Strategy, Bitcoin has not regained bullish strength. It is still possible to end up below $100,000 by 2025,” he said.
Puckrin added that political developments in 2026 could revive sentiment. President-elect Donald Trump is expected to name a new Federal Reserve chair once Powell’s term ends in May. Former White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett has been seen as a leading candidate and is viewed by the industry as favorable to the growth of digital assets.
Recent trading ranges show Bitcoin stalled between $81,000 and $94,000 following its sharp drop from October’s record high near $126,000.
Compass Point analyst Ed Engel warned that a break above the current range seems unlikely until buyers return with higher volumes. Engel estimates that investors who entered the market in the last six months have a cost base close to $103,000. With prices below that level, he said traders are more inclined to sell rebounds than accumulate dips.
Currently, Bitcoin is down around 2% in 2025, setting its weakest annual result since 2022, when the market lost more than 60%. The divergence with US stocks has widened as the S&P 500 posts a strong annual gain.
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