Bitcoin (BTC-USD) remained under pressure on Monday, falling below $94,000 and raising its losses from all-time highs in October to around 25%. The decline is raising questions about whether this remains a temporary correction or the start of another four-year cycle that led to a longer-term sell-off.
The token has declined sharply since $19 billion in leveraged positions were liquidated last month, a move exacerbated by profit-taking by long-term holders. The current sell-off also coincides with the window in which Bitcoin peaks historically, approximately 400 to 600 days after its last halving event, which occurred in April 2024.
“This self-fulfilling prophecy has led to a bitcoin market sell-off in Q4’25,” wrote Bernstein analysts led by Gautam Chhugani. “However, we believe the following evidence points to a short-term consolidation towards a new local bottom and not the historic 60-70% decline seen in previous cycles.”
Bitcoin hit a record high above $126,000 per token on October 6.
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Analysts noted an increase in ETF adoption by institutional investors, reflecting “higher quality and consistent ownership” of bitcoin.
The Trump administration’s support for bitcoin and the Clarity Act legislation in Congress also represent positive factors.
“The current market environment does not look like a peak cycle to us.” Chhugani said. “Rather it feels like a structural trend over several years of institutional participation in the Bitcoin and crypto capital markets, with occasional corrections along the way.”
“We are watching to see if Bitcoin can bottom out near the ~$80,000 range seen immediately after Trump’s election. We believe the current market weakness may provide an attractive entry for new investors,” he added.
Strategy’s (MSTR) continued buying of the cryptocurrency also offers some level of support, with the company revealing on Monday that it purchased another 8,178 tokens at an average price of $102,171 each, for a total of $835 million.
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Meanwhile, 10X Research noted that appetite for new buyers plateaued around Oct. 10, while the Federal Reserve’s more hawkish tone in recent days “has tipped the macro balance, leaving the market increasingly fragile.”
“This is precisely why the four-year cycle deserves serious consideration,” according to the 10X Research note.
“(This cycle) aligns with a broad set of independent indicators and conditions that all point to the same conclusion: this is a time for utmost caution.”