After two exhibitions and a regular season opener away in Provo, BYU plays at home for the first time Saturday night when they host Holy Cross. The game begins at 7 pm MT on ESPN+.
BYU and the Holy Cross in numbers
Santa Cruz record: 0-1; Defeat 89-79 in Providence
BYU record: 1-0; 71-66 victory against Villanova
KenPom Prediction: BYU 95, Holy Cross 63 – BYU 99.8% chance to win
The Crusaders are the lowest-ranked KenPom team on BYU’s schedule, ranking 341st of 365 D1 teams. Their 10-point loss to Providence moved them up 11 spots from their preseason ranking of 352.
Holy Cross was picked to finish 9 of 10 teams in the Patriot League preseason poll. They are not expected to be very good, but they have continuity from last season; Four of their starters started games for them last season.
The only thing Holy Cross can do is shoot the three ball. Holy Cross was ninth nationally last year in three-point shooting (38.5%), and three of its starters shot over 40% on three-pointers. The Crusaders’ problem is that they did almost everything else wrong: They turned the ball over, didn’t grab offensive rebounds or get to the free throw line, and were terrible defensively.
Holy Cross was a 23.5 underdog at Providence, but played admirably in a 10-point loss. They trailed by 17 at halftime and cut the lead to 6 with a minute left before Providence put the game away.
Providence has good shooters, but they are a small team and give up a lot on the glass and in the paint. The tallest player of their top 7 players is 6 feet 7 inches. Providence outscored Holy Cross 44-24 in the paint and shot 24-36 (67%) on two-point field goals.
Santa Cruz players to follow
Tyler Boston, guard. The 6-foot point guard from Holy Cross scored 25 points and dished out 6 assists for Providence. He was 10-11 from the free throw line.
Joe Nugent, guard/wing — The 6-foot-6 wing averaged 12.5 points last season and shot 43% from three. Scored 10 points against Holy Cross.
BYU should dominate this game. I fear what AJ Dybantsa and Rob Wright can do to this Holy Cross defense. They have no rim protector on the roster and are a bad defensive team. AJ could probably go for 40 if he wanted to and Rob Wright will be able to see the rim well, but we’ll see how much time Kevin Young plays with his best players. I imagine you’ll want to get some of your bench guys running around a bit so you can get a good look at them in live action.
BYU is going to win this handily, but I want to see how BYU defends the three. That’s an area where Holy Cross performs well, so it will be a good opportunity for BYU to take on shooters in transition and be disciplined on defense. Another area I want BYU to be successful in is shooting their side’s three balls. BYU went 5-15 against Villanova, so getting guys like Richie Saunders, Dawson Baker, Tyler Mrus, Rob Wright and others to knock down threes would be a nice confidence boost.
I think BYU covers, but I’ll pick Holy Cross to cover as they could get some cheap threes late to get some backdoor coverage.
Prediction: BYU 93, Santa Cruz 61