Based on our probability-adjusted DCF model that takes into account potential future revenues from tecarfarin in LVAD, ESKD+AFib, and mechanical heart valves, CVKD is valued at $30.00/share. This model is highly dependent on the continued clinical success of tecarfarin and will be adjusted accordingly based on future clinical results.
Stand out
Based on our probability-adjusted DCF
model that takes into account the potential
future admissions for tecarfarin in LVAD, ESKD+AFib,
PERSPECTIVE
On September 15, 2025, Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) announced the acquisition of assets of eXIthera Pharmaceuticals that includes a portfolio of intravenous (IV) and oral factor XIa inhibitors. The main asset, Frunexian, is a
Cadrenal also recently announced that it will prioritize tecarfarin clinical trial plans for patients with end-stage renal disease (ESKD) transitioning to dialysis, a cohort with a significant unmet need for effective anticoagulant therapies. We anticipate that the Phase 2 trial will begin in the first quarter of 2026.
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Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. Price
Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. Price | Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. Quote
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Update Acquires Portfolio of Factor XIa Inhibitors On September 15, 2025, Cadrenal Therapeutics, Inc. (CVKD) announced that it had acquired a portfolio of Factor XIa inhibitors from eXIthera Pharmaceuticals. The acquired assets include frunexian, a Phase 2-ready asset that is being developed as an acute anticoagulant therapy for clotting prevention where medical devices play an important role, such as in cardiopulmonary bypass and catheter thrombosis. The portfolio also includes EP-7327, an oral factor XIa inhibitor for the prevention and treatment of major thrombotic conditions.
Anticoagulant therapy is used for the prevention and treatment of thrombosis without altering hemostasis. Current anticoagulants target FXa or thrombin, which are enzymes of the extrinsic coagulation pathway. However, inhibition of factor XIa is a new area of ​​interest, as epidemiological and animal data support the concept that factor XIa is essential for thrombosis but not necessary for hemostasis. People with congenital FXI deficiency do not have an increased risk of spontaneous bleeding, while at the same time, these patients have a lower risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) and ischemic stroke. In contrast, patients with elevated FXI levels have a higher risk of VTE and stroke.
Frunexian is a small molecule inhibitor of factor XIa and is designed for intravenous administration. While there are several other FXIa inhibitors in development (as shown in the table below), frunexian is the only one that we know of is being developed in the critical care setting.
Frunexian has been successfully tested in two Phase 1 clinical trials in healthy volunteers. The results showed that the drug was well tolerated at doses up to 2.25 mg/kg/h and there were no reports of serious adverse events. Steady-state plasma levels of the drug were achieved rapidly and, more importantly, the drug was rapidly eliminated after discontinuation of dosing, an important factor for use in the critical care setting. The company has additional work to do regarding the manufacturing of frunexian before initiating the clinical trial plan, which may initially focus on complex cardiac surgery.
Planned Clinical Trial in ESKD With Transition from Atrial Fibrillation to Dialysis
In August 2025, Cadrenal announced plans for a clinical trial of tecarfarin in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESKD) who are transitioning to dialysis. We anticipate that enrollment will begin in the first quarter of 2026 and topline data could be available approximately one year after the start of the trial.
Patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) are at high risk for cardiovascular events: approximately half of stage 4 and 5 CKD (ESKD) have cardiovascular disease (CVD) (Stevens et al., 2007), and cardiovascular mortality is one of the leading causes of death in patients with advanced CKD (Webster et al., 2016). Conflicting data are available on whether current anticoagulant treatment options (both warfarin and DOACs) are effective in preventing CV events in these patients. The RENAL-AF trial compared apixaban with warfarin in dialysis patients with atrial fibrillation (AF); However, the study was underpowered to draw conclusions about rates of clinically relevant major or nonmajor bleeding, although hemorrhagic events were noted to be much more common than cerebrovascular events in that population (Pokorney et al., 2022). Pooled observational data suggest that DOACs may have similar stroke prevention and potentially reduce major bleeding compared to warfarin; However, the evidence is heterogeneous and of low quality (Shen et al., 2023). The bottom line is that a new treatment option is needed for dialysis patients with ESKD. The activity of tecarfarin is not affected in patients with ESKD, making it a suitable compound to test as anticoagulant therapy in that population.
Financial update
On August 11, 2025, Cadrenal announced financial results for the second quarter of 2025. As expected, the company did not record any revenue for the three months ended June 30, 2025. R&D expenses in the second quarter of 2025 were $1.1 million compared to $1.3 million in the second quarter of 2024. The decrease was primarily due to lower consulting expenses partially offset by an increase in CMC costs. General and administrative expenses were $2.7 million in the second quarter of 2025 compared to $1.2 million in the second quarter of 2024. The increase was primarily due to increased public company expenses and non-cash stock-based compensation. As of June 30, 2025, Cadrenal had approximately $5.6 million in cash and cash equivalents. While the company has sufficient capital to fund operations over the next 12 months, it will need to raise additional capital to carry out planned clinical trials for tecarfarin and frunexian. The company currently has approximately 2.0 million shares outstanding and, when accounting for stock options and warrants, a fully diluted share count of approximately 3.1 million.
Conclusion
Cadrenal has now enhanced its portfolio with the acquisition of frunexian and other factor XIa inhibitors and we look forward to receiving additional information on their development. The shift to focus on ESKD patients for tecarfarin is important as there is a significant need for effective anticoagulant therapy for these patients and we believe that positive results could also serve to reduce the risk of tecarfarin development in other indications, such as in LVAD patients. Before adding Frunexian to our model, we will wait and see what development path the company decides to follow with it, which is why our valuation remains at $30 per share.
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PROJECTED FINANCES
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