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UPS stock has lost nearly a third of its value over the past five years.
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Revenue growth has not exceeded 3% in any of the last four years, but analysts see the bottom line growing again in 2026.
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If it can maintain its streak of annual dividend increases, as well as its turnaround strategy, UPS can beat the market over the next five years.
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The last five years have been a challenge for United Parcel Service (NYSE: UPS) investors. Shares of the package delivery giant have plummeted 32% in that time. Are the prospects brighter if we look to the next five years? It would be difficult not to be.
Recent momentum is promising. UPS is up 9% through the first six trading days of 2026, up 32% since bottoming three months ago. At least four analysts raised their price targets for the stock last week. With a juicy 6.1% dividend yield, UPS can offer a powerful combination of capital gains along with a sizable quarterly distribution.
Recovery stories are never easy or clear, and a lot can happen with UPS. But let’s start by taking a look at the last five years before turning our attention to the future.
UPS was initially one of the first leaders to respond to the COVID-19 crisis. People turned to e-commerce and home delivery, and UPS was one of the many transportation companies that benefited. UPS’s revenue rose in the mid-teens in 2020 and 2021, following a decade of steady but dull single-digit positive growth in top line.
Then the wheels started coming off, metaphorically speaking. Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) It outgrew its reliance on UPS, so the two mutually agreed to a lighter load on the online retailer’s growing shipping volume. Its SurePost program with the United States Postal Service for last-mile delivery also unraveled at the end of 2024. It averted a 2023 strike by the UPS Teamsters union, but the subsequent five-year deal ensures rising labor costs annually through 2028. Add the tariff-laden outlook of 2025, and the end of the U.S. de minimis exemption that ended duty-free status for imports low value at the end of last year, and It has been a difficult few years for UPS.
The scoreboard, as all these events unfolded, is telling. UPS’s revenue growth slowed to 3% in 2022, and things only got worse after that. Revenue would decline 9% in 2023 and remain flat in 2024, and by the time last year’s figures are available, there is expected to be a 3% drop in gross revenue.
Around the time its stock bottomed in the fall, UPS warned of a 13% decline in shipping volume during the seasonally peak fourth quarter. That outlook improved to a relatively better 11% as the holiday season progressed.