However, even as diplomatic efforts continue, Security incidents in and around the Strait of Hormuz – one of the world’s most critical maritime chokepoints – highlight the fragility of the situation.
Reports of ships being attacked or seized by Iranian and US forces highlight the ongoing risks to shipping through the narrow waterway, which carries about a fifth of the world’s oil supply and a significant share of global fertilizer inputs.
Marine insurance costs have risen, ship traffic has dropped sharply since late February and nearly 20,000 seafarers remain stranded amid uncertainty.
The Strait of Hormuz is a narrow but vital shipping route linking the Persian Gulf with the Gulf of Oman and the wider Arabian Sea. It is located between Iran to the north and Oman and the United Arab Emirates to the south.
Shock waves beyond the region
The disruption is triggering what UN agencies describe as a widening humanitarian and economic shock far beyond the Middle East.
Rising oil prices and reduced shipping traffic are driving up the costs of transport, electricity and agricultural inputs in import-dependent Asian economies – including Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, Nepal and the Philippines – with direct consequences for aid delivery and access to essential services.
These pressures are piling on pre-existing vulnerabilities – from high food insecurity to economic fragility – leaving millions of households and response systems already overburdened with little capacity to absorb new crises.
Across Asia, an estimated 45.5 million people already need humanitarian assistance.with response plans targeting 27.2 million people and requiring $3.6 billion in funding.
Food safety risks increase
One of the most immediate concerns is the impact on food systems.
Up to a third of global trade in fertilizer raw materials passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and disruptions to ammonia and nitrogen shipments are beginning to limit supplies at a critical time.
In BangladeshThe closure of several state-owned fertilizer factories has disrupted domestic production during the winter rice season, creating immediate pressure for farmers.
Higher fuel and transportation costs are also influencing food prices. In NepalDiesel (the primary fuel for trucks and heavy machinery) has risen sharply, driving up costs across the economy.
If the crisis persists, UN estimates warn that An additional 9.1 million people in Asia could face acute food insecurity.
Concerns about the upcoming planting season
The timing is especially concerning as it coincides with key windows for crop planting.
Farmers facing higher costs and uncertain access to fertilizers may reduce input use, plant less or switch crops, decisions that could reduce yields and restrict food supplies in the coming months.
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that delays in key inputs risk disrupting planting cycles, with impacts that will extend into the next harvest season.
“If we do not have the inputs in the time they are needed… producers will have to produce with fewer inputs… and therefore could have lower yields,“, recently warned the organization’s chief economist, Máximo Torero.
Humanitarian operations under pressure
For humanitarian agencies, the crisis is already translating into operational limitations.
Rising fuel costs, disruption to shipping routes and higher insurance premiums are making it more expensive and difficult to provide assistance. – particularly in hard-to-access and landlocked environments.
In several countries, response plans were already underfunded before the escalation, leaving little room to absorb rising operational costs.
In AfghanistanLogistics costs have increased by around 20 percent, and up to half of humanitarian goods are at risk of supply disruptions. These pressures come as return movements from neighboring countries continue and humanitarian needs remain grave.
In BurmaWhere 90 percent of fuel is imported, supply disruptions have led to rationing measures, including vehicle restrictions, complicating aid delivery in conflict- and earthquake-affected areas where access was already fragile.
In BangladeshLimits on fuel sales and scheduled blackouts are affecting energy access and service continuity, while higher transportation costs are disrupting supply chains. Across the region, humanitarian actors report reduced operational flexibility and increasing difficulty in sustaining large-scale assistance.
Homes destroyed by an earthquake that hit eastern Afghanistan in August 2025. More than 2,200 people lost their lives and several thousand more were injured.
Tight on both sides
The crisis is affecting both sides of the humanitarian equation: Needs are increasing, while the cost of reaching people is increasing.
Unless additional, flexible funding is mobilized, UN agencies and humanitarian partners warn they could be forced to scale back assistance just as demand accelerates.
This week’s extension of the ceasefire offers an opportunity to ease tensions. But with continued uncertainty in the Strait of Hormuz and its impact on supply chains, food systems and aid operations, The risk remains that a temporary crisis could metastasize into a deeper and more protracted humanitarian crisis.