Tallahassee, Florida– With President Donald Trump’s poll numbers fading, embattled Florida Democrats are hoping this year will be an opportunity to make gains in the state.
But now they are looking at the possibility of losing up to four seats in the US House of Representatives in the midterm elections because of it New congressional map It was passed this week by the Republican-controlled Legislature.
Governor Ron DeSantis He said the redistricting would reflect Florida’s population growth and political leanings. Democrats described this as a power grab by Trump, who had been urging Republicans to do so Redrawing maps across the country.
The changes use both “packing and cracking,” the main tools for gerrymandering. Mobilization involves concentrating like-minded voters in a smaller number of districts, or in one area, to reduce their overall influence across multiple areas. Gerrymandering involves distributing like-minded voters across more districts, making it harder for them to influence the elections of any one district.
Under the new lines, there are 24 districts where Trump won in 2024 by double digits, according to analysts from both parties. If Republicans win all of these elections, they will gain four seats.
Although there will certainly be legal challenges to the map, here’s a look at how the new boundaries will affect current Democratic-controlled districts in Florida.
Not long ago, Pinellas and Hillsborough counties were considered two of the most populous swing counties in American politics. Voters in and around Tampa and St. Petersburg were the vanguard in the presidential races.
Currently, the primary metro district is split between the right-leaning district represented by Republican Rep. Ana Paulina Luna and the left-leaning district represented by Democratic Rep. Kathy Castor. The new map divides those areas into three districts, all leaning Republican, and Castor’s seat now includes more conservative rural areas.
She called the new designs “blatantly illegal” because of Florida’s constitutional ban on partisan gerrymandering. But she said, “No matter how the new districts are drawn, I will continue to fight for Tampa Bay families.”
Luna, a major target for Democrats in November, carried more Republican-leaning precincts, but Democrats in Washington said they could still win the seat given Trump’s declining popularity.
Currently, Democrats Darren Soto and Maxwell Frost hold contiguous districts in and around Orlando, with Frost centered in the city and Soto covering Kissimmee and extending south and east over much of Osceola County.
Now, the heart of metro Orlando will become one district that is sure to shift Democratic. Meanwhile, other parts of Orlando would become part of a separate, broader, more Republican district.
Frost criticized the design of pairing city residents with voters who live within a two-hour drive. “This is how hard DeSantis mapmakers are working to dilute voters in Orange County and turn this district red,” he said on social media.
Soto, who is Puerto Rican and now represents many Puerto Ricans, criticized the governor.
“DeSantis declared war on 1.3 million Puerto Ricans in Florida,” he wrote on social media. “We are American citizens, our people served and died for this country, and we vote.”
The new map identifies a heavily black district in South Florida that was represented by Sheila Chervilos-McCormick before her recent resignation during a House ethics investigation into her use of campaign funds. The district was originally designated to comply with Voting Rights Act rulings issued by the U.S. Supreme Court Virtually devoured on Wednesday.
DeSantis described the district as a race-heavy district, with most of it inland and two arms extending toward coastal Democratic areas.
Now the area will be essentially wiped out, spread across multiple regions.
Reps. Lois Frankel and Jared Moskowitz currently have contiguous districts covering large swaths of Palm Beach and Broward counties. Both lean slightly Democratic.
The new map creates a more Democratic district anchored by West Palm Beach, mixing some of Frankel’s voters with those previously represented by Cervelos-McCormick. It divides Moskowitz’s current territory across three districts, which represents a more difficult blow to his re-election prospects than what Frankl might face.
Parkland, where Moskowitz lives, will be in a Republican district that stretches across the state to Naples. One of the top national Republican targets Even before redistricting, Moskowitz had not said which district he would choose for re-election.
Reps. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, former chairwoman of the Democratic National Committee, and Frederica Wilson currently represent neighboring districts to the south of the Frankel-Moskowitz pairing.
Wasserman Schultz owns north Broward, including Weston, where she lives, along with Hollywood, Pembroke Pines and part of Miramar. Wilson, who lives in Miami Gardens, represents the second most Democratic district on the outgoing map, after South Broward and parts of Miami-Dade.
Now, there will only be one heavily Democratic district in Miami-Dade, and Wilson will be in a position to remain in office there. Between the new Miami-Dade district and Frankel’s Palm Beach County base is the new, heavily Democratic Broward district. Wasserman Schultz doesn’t live in this part of Broward. She will have to decide whether to run there or choose one of the new majority Republican districts that Moskowitz is also considering.
Wasserman Schultz called the redrawing a “blatant partisan scheme” that “violates state law.”
In a potential bright spot for Democrats nationally, the changes in South Florida did not significantly support Republican Reps. Maria Elvira Salazar, who lives in Coral Gables, or Carlos Gimenez, another representative from Miami-Dade. Democrats plan to continue targeting them in this year’s midterm elections.