Gasoline prices are rising sharply again across the country, and the increase is especially hitting a group of Midwestern states that backed Donald Trump in the 2024 election. The increase is closely related to oil prices rising to wartime highs amid ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the conflict in Iran.
The average cost of gas in the United States is $1.12 higher than this time last year, and oil prices continue to catapult above $100 per barrel (1), with no signs of significantly slowing or reversing course in the long term, according to AAA. (2)
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The five hardest-hit states — Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa — have seen the fastest weekly increases in gasoline prices nationwide, AAA data suggests. (3) These states constitute a key political stronghold for Trump, making the economic impact of rising fuel costs especially significant, both financially and politically.
Conflict-induced costs are rising, causing people to pay more at the pump
Nationally, gasoline prices have risen above $4 per gallon, a significant increase since the conflict began in late February. Prices are the highest since late July 2022, driven largely by disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments.
The conflict has limited the supply of crude oil and created a direct and immediate effect for consumers at the pump.
While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent recently said he is “optimistic” that gas prices will drop back into the $3 range this summer, critics continue to warn that even if the war comes to an end, consumer costs will take time to recover.
Regional issues are exacerbating the problem
Analysts point to several factors that aggravate high gas prices, beyond high oil prices. Gas stations are trying to recoup profits lost earlier during the conflict, while record U.S. oil exports are reducing domestic supply, according to the Wall Street Journal. (4)
Gasoline demand increased last week from 9.05 million b/d to 9.10 million, but total domestic gasoline supply decreased from 228.4 million barrels to 222.3 million along with gasoline production, which decreased to about 9.8 million barrels per day, according to data from the Energy Information Administration (EIA). (5) Crude oil inventories also fell by 6.2 million barrels from last week.
Meanwhile, the Midwest has been hit harder than most regions.
Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin and Iowa have seen the largest increases. And Michigan and Ohio are already among the 10 most expensive gas markets in the country, averaging $4.58 and $4.46, respectively. (2)
A temporary outage at a major refinery in northwest Indiana has further restricted supply, contributing to increases not only in gasoline prices but also in diesel and jet fuel prices across the Midwest. In Chicago, for example, wholesale diesel prices have reached record levels, surpassing even those on the West Coast.
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Economic tension may have electoral implications
The broader economic implications are significant.
Rising gas prices increase transportation and logistics costs, which can impact the economy in the form of higher prices for goods and services. For households, especially in car-dependent regions like the Midwest, fuel costs place a direct strain on disposable income.
Trump and his allies have often emphasized energy affordability as a key economic strength. However, the current surge – driven, in part, by foreign policy decisions and global market disruptions – poses a challenge to that narrative. Previous reports have shown that prolonged high gas prices can create anxiety within Republican circles. (6)
“Honestly, it worries me,” one Republican operative told The Hill, adding that because gas prices “are advertised on big illuminated billboards on every corner,” it’s easy for Americans to “tangibly see them every day.” “I think gas prices need to come down for Republicans to adequately convey our message.” (7)
The University of Michigan reported that consumer confidence hit a record low in April. And Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, told the Wall Street Journal that “many consumers blame the Iran conflict for unfavorable changes in the economy.” (8)
Ultimately, a global energy shock is translating into localized economic pressure that is causing confidence to plummet as prices soar. While oil prices continue to fluctuate, the consequences are felt most acutely in specific regions, especially those that are economically and politically sensitive to rising fuel costs.
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Article sources
We rely only on verified sources and credible third-party reports. For more details, see our ethics and guidelines.
Commercial Economics (1); AAA (2), (3); Wall Street Journal (4), (8); Energy Information Administration (5); Brookings Institution (6); The hill (7)
This article originally appeared on Moneywise.com with the title: Gas prices are rising faster in 5 states that backed Trump, and consumer confidence hit an all-time low.
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