Gasoline prices rose closer to the $4 threshold on Friday as oil futures rose amid an escalation in the Middle East conflict.
The national average at the pump rose above $3.91 per gallon to hit its highest level since 2022, according to AAA data. Prices have increased steadily over the past few weeks, rising $0.98 from the previous month.
At this rate, prices are expected to reach $4 per gallon in the coming days.
“I think it looks like a strong possibility right now,” Patrick De Haan, head of oil analysis at GasBuddy, told Yahoo Finance.
Oil prices, which are more than 40% higher than when the war with Iran began, along with more expensive summer fuel blends, are also putting upward pressure on prices and consumers’ wallets.
Read more: How oil price shocks impact your wallet, from gas to food
On Wednesday, President Trump announced a temporary waiver of the Jones Act, which allows non-U.S. ships to deliver goods to other parts of the United States.
“This will have minimal impact on fuel prices, but will help alleviate the supply chain, providing more options to bring fuel to US markets,” De Haan said.
Diesel prices have also skyrocketed approximately 38% from the previous month, surpassing $5 per gallon to reach a four-year high.
The increase in fuel used for trucks and machinery is particularly concerning, given that approximately 70% of goods are transported by truck in the United States.
“There are many ways that oil and its derivatives enter into the production and transportation of many, many things,” Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Wednesday, suggesting that higher energy prices risk leaking into inflation readings.
The rise in gasoline prices comes as oil rose for a third straight day on Thursday after Israel attacked and damaged a major natural gas processing facility in southwestern Iran. Tehran retaliated by attacking energy infrastructure across the region.
The latest rally “is keeping crude in a ‘fast market’ type of trade,” said Dennis Kissler, senior vice president at BOK Financial.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil (CL=F), the US benchmark, rose above $95 per barrel. International benchmark Brent crude oil futures (BZ=F) exceeded $103.
Traders remain focused on the Strait of Hormuz, a critical oil transit point where flows have slowed to a near standstill. Strategists warn that prices could rise even further if the conflict drags on.
RBC Capital Markets estimates that oil could surpass the $128 per barrel level reached after the Russian invasion of Ukraine if the conflict persists for another three to four weeks. If the war drags on for several months, prices could surpass the 2008 high of $146 a barrel, analysts said.