Goldman Just Raised Its Oil Forecast Again, and It’s Not What Trump Expected

President donald trump He called the recent oil crisis a “little excursion” and predicted that prices will drop quickly when the war in Iran is resolved.

But the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the harder it will be to defend that assumption.

In an April 26 note, Goldman Sachs commodities analyst Daan Struyven upgraded Brent’s forecast for Q4 2026 from $80 to $90 and West Texas Intermediate from $75 to $83.

It is the fourth improvement since the war began on February 27, 2026. Fourth-quarter Brent’s trajectory has moved from $66 to $71, from $80 to $90, each revision linked to a supposed longer Hormuz outage.

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Why Goldman predicts oil will rise for longer

The revision reflects a slower recovery in Persian Gulf production and a delayed normalization of exports, which is now expected in late June instead of mid-May. Analysts also raised estimates for 2027 to $85 for Brent and $80 for WTI.

“Economic risks are greater than our crude oil base case suggests given the net upside risks to oil prices, unusually high refined product prices, product shortage risks, and the unprecedented scale of the shock,” the Goldman team wrote.

The numbers behind the update are extreme.

April global oil inventories are reaching 11-12 million barrels per day (mb/d), the fastest pace on record since satellite tracking began. Gulf crude production has plummeted to 11.9 mb/d from a prewar production rate of 26.4 mb/d, a hit of 14.5 mb/d.

Goldman now sees the market going from a surplus of 1.8 mb/d in 2025 to a deficit of 9.6 mb/d in the second quarter of 2026.

The report estimates a nearly $30 increase in Brent prices due to the disruption, driven by lower inventories and higher long-term prices.

The bank also warned that its baseline underestimates the upside potential.

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Goldman outlines three key scenarios for Brent at the end of 2026:

• Base case: $90 per barrel

• Adverse: Just over $100 if exports normalize at the end of July

• Serious: Almost $120 with deeper capacity losses

• Benign: just under $80 with faster recovery and higher supply

Goldman Sachs Oil Price Forecast Update: Risk Now Asymmetrical

Updated April 26, 2026

The report highlights that inventories could fall to the lowest levels since tracking began in 2018, increasing the risk of sharp and non-linear price spikes.

Goldman analysts see “an upside risk to estimated prices in the adverse and severely adverse scenarios because oil inventories are likely to reach very low levels, triggering non-linear price increases.”

Total globally visible oil inventories are likely to reach the lowest level since satellite monitoring began in 2018, even in the benign case.

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Goldman also noted a tail risk that it does not include in the baseline.

“Although not our base case, we do not rule out restrictions on US oil exports if the Strait remains effectively closed for longer,” the analysts wrote.

The bank warned that such restrictions could “reduce the production of crude oil and products in the United States and the world, and widen the international price gap against the United States.”

What this means for investors

He United States Oil Fund is up roughly 94% so far this year and is on track for its fourth consecutive month of gains, after a spectacular 55.3% rally in March and a 4% advance in April.

Energy was already the best-performing sector in 2026 before the update.

He Select Energy Sector SPDR Fund has gained around 29% so far this year, while the SPDR S&P Oil & Gas Exploration and Production ETF is up 35%, both on track for their best performance since 2022.

Higher oil prices for longer could boost profit growth for U.S. oil producers, while putting pressure on fuel-intensive industries such as airlines and cruise operators through rising costs.

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