Washington– Three years after Honduras separated from Taiwan and established diplomatic relations with China Hope for economic gainsShrimp farmers in the Central American country have revolted.
Its sales to Taiwan fell to just $16 million in 2025, from more than $100 million in 2022, and the Chinese did not fill the void as hoped.
“We were deceived,” said Javier Amador, executive director of the National Aquaculture Association of Honduras, describing promises made by former President Xiomara Castro of better opportunities with China when it joined China. Severing relations with Taiwan An embassy was opened in Beijing in 2023.
Nasri Asfoura, He, who was elected president with the support of President Donald Trump and was sworn in in January, ordered a review of the agreements between Tegucigalpa and Beijing. This has fueled expectations that Honduras will distance itself from China, in line with the Trump administration’s campaign to limit Chinese and economic influence in Latin America.
Asfoura is expected to join other regional leaders at the conference Security summit He hosts Trump at his golf course near Miami on Saturday.
“Honduras is probably the most likely country in the world right now to shift diplomatic recognition to Taiwan,” said Francisco Ordenez, an associate professor at the Institute of Political Science at the Pontifical Catholic University of Chile. “President Asfora campaigned on this, met with Trump at Mar-a-Lago within days of taking office, and his vice president confirmed the government’s intent.”
“But it is not as simple as flipping a switch,” he added, noting that Honduras has signed more than a dozen agreements with China since 2023.
China and Taiwan have been diplomatic in responding to questions about the potential shift in allegiance.
Liu Bingyu, spokesman for the Chinese Embassy in Washington, said Honduras has better prospects for its long-term development since the establishment of diplomatic relations with China, and that the two countries have “reaped fruitful cooperation results in various fields.”
The Office of the Economic and Cultural Representative of Taipei, the island’s de facto embassy in Washington, said Taiwan would continue to strengthen relations with Honduras “in an open and practical manner, without preconditions, and on the basis of equality and reciprocity.”
The Honduran government did not respond to a request for comment.
Latin America’s relations with Taiwan have gained attention because they have become a measure of the balance of power between the world’s two largest economies.
Beijing considers Taiwan a Chinese territory, while Washington, despite lacking formal ties with Taiwan, is the island’s most powerful partner and has pledged to help Taiwan maintain its formal allies, who are seen as essential for the island to have a legitimate space on the world stage.
Of the 12 governments that still recognize Taiwan, seven are in Latin America, including Guatemala and Paraguay, and five are in the Caribbean.
Secretary of State Marco Rubio, During his visit to Guatemala In February, he thanked the country for sticking by Taiwan.
“It’s not easy in a world where there’s a lot of pressure to change that recognition and break those ties, but you’ve always stood firm,” Rubio said, promising to work with Guatemala to deepen its economic ties with Taiwan.
Rep. John Moolenaar, chairman of the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, had a similar message when he hosted a delegation from Guatemala in November.
“While too many countries bow to Beijing’s bullying, Guatemala stands with the people of Taiwan and thrives through a strong trade relationship,” said Moolenaar, a Republican from Michigan. “I support Guatemala’s efforts to oppose Chinese aggression in our hemisphere and look forward to working with Guatemala on areas of common ground.”
US lawmakers have introduced a bill that could provide $120 million over three years to aid Taiwan’s partners.
In 2016 and 2017, Panama, the Dominican Republic, and El Salvador switched allegiance from Taipei to Beijing. Nicaragua flipped in 2021, and Honduras in 2023.
The loss of the Taiwanese market led to the closure of at least 95 shrimp farms and one processing plant, the loss of more than 25,000 direct and indirect jobs, and the loss of millions of dollars in foreign exchange for the Central American country, according to Amador.
“Most companies closed in 2024 because a lot of them couldn’t ship to other markets, and China wasn’t the answer, because we’re not competitive for them,” he said.
Amador hopes that the president will restore relations with Taiwan for the benefit of the 330 shrimp farming companies still operating.
“The question of returning to Taiwan is not about regaining what we have already lost, but about whether we will start over to revitalize industry, improve productivity and generate foreign exchange and employment,” he said.
For Asfoura, who campaigned for severing ties with Beijing, there is more to be resolved. China has investments worth hundreds of millions of dollars in Honduras.
Enrique Milan Mejia, a senior fellow in economic development at the Atlantic Council’s Adrienne Arsht Center for Latin America, said Honduras could grant “special status” to Taiwan and withdraw from Beijing’s global infrastructure project, the Belt and Road Initiative, which has helped the Chinese government open markets and expand its influence.
Last year, Panama became the first Latin American country to withdraw from the Belt and Road Initiative, sparking an angry response from Beijing, which accused the United States of using “pressure and coercion” to undermine cooperation.
Ordenez said Asfoura might go further and rebuild official relations with Taiwan.
“Asfoura’s calculations are primarily about the United States, not Taiwan per se,” Ordenez said. “Recognizing Taiwan is essentially the price of accepting Trump’s good graces.”
___
Gonzalez reported from Tegucigalpa, Honduras.