For decades, the retirement script was simple: the mortgage would disappear, expenses would fall, and savings would finally have room to breathe.
However, consider a hypothetical retiree, Tom. He is 64 years old and plans to stop working at 66, but he still owes $185,000 on his mortgage. Your monthly payment, including taxes and insurance, is $1,650. He has about $720,000 saved in a 401(k) and an IRA and expects about $2,600 a month from Social Security once he claims benefits. On paper, he has done many things “right.” In practice, that mortgage payment looms large and your dream retirement scenario is in jeopardy.
Tom’s concern is becoming more common. More and more older Americans are retiring with housing debt (1), higher insurance costs, and growing uncertainty around health care and inflation. And for them, the long-held assumption that retirement will be cheaper than working life no longer seems reliable.
In the past, carrying a mortgage into retirement was often framed as a lack of planning. Today it is an economic reality.
Some homeowners refinanced during periods of low rates and chose to invest extra money rather than speed up payment. Others grew larger later in life, helped their adult children (2), or endured job losses, medical costs or divorces that delayed freedom from debt.
For some retirees, keeping a mortgage may make sense. If the interest rate is low and investments generate returns greater than the costs of the mortgage, keeping the loan can preserve liquidity. Mortgage interest can also be manageable relative to income, especially when combined with Social Security and pensions.
But the downside is obvious: Fixed monthly payments don’t go away just because paychecks go away.
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A mortgage becomes a greater risk once income moves from earned wages to a combination of Social Security and savings withdrawals.
In Tom’s case, that $1,650 payment consumes a significant portion of his expected monthly income. That means larger withdrawals from retirement accounts, which can accelerate the depletion of your portfolio, especially in early retirement, when sequencing of returns risk means the possibility that poor investment returns in the early stages of retirement (or just before) will permanently damage your portfolio (3).