Is Chelsea a real title contender?

So can Enzo Maresca’s team upset the odds of winning the Premier League this season?

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Arsenal are on a 16-game unbeaten streak as they try to end a 21-year Premier League title drought, having last lost on August 31 at Liverpool.

However, Chelsea, who have had an extra day of rest after their 3-0 home win against Barcelona in the Champions League on Tuesday, are on their own six-game unbeaten run and are feeling confident.

Asked about the importance of a win on Sunday, Chelsea manager Enzo Maresca said: “We still have five or six months left. It will be important where we are in February or March, we’ll see.”

We will analyze whether the numbers support Chelsea’s chances of facing a sustained fight for the title.

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Does the data say Chelsea are consistent enough?

In simple terms, Chelsea are playing well, but not enough to be champions.

Chelsea’s attack, even after losing Cole Palmer for more than two months to injury, is on par with Arsenal’s.

However, Arsenal’s incredible defensive statistics set them apart.

Historically, to win the title, a team needs to average a non-penalty expected goal difference (npXG) ​​of +1 per game, meaning you are creating substantially more chances than you consistently concede.

Only Arsenal are achieving that level of consistency so far this season, while Chelsea need to improve defensively.

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Having beaten Liverpool, Tottenham and Barcelona this season, Spanish left-back Marc Cucurella said his team’s inconsistency against lesser opposition is a problem.

“I think this season we lost points against teams you expect to win against,” the defender said.

Curiously, Arsenal’s exceptional defense threatens Chelsea’s record for most clean sheets (25) and fewest goals conceded (15) in a Premier League campaign, achieved under José Mourinho in 2005.

“You can see that they don’t concede goals,” Maresca said. “Defensively they are the best team and the first in the league and the Champions League, so they are the team to beat.”

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There are obvious stylistic similarities between the two teams: both play with a patient, high-pressing possession style.

Another key difference is the quality of the set pieces. Arsenal are the best offensive set-piece team in the league, with 10 goals in 12 games and the highest xG with 7.88. Meanwhile, Chelsea are second with eight set-piece goals and have the fourth-highest xG at 5.44.

Although Arsenal conceded just one fewer goal from set pieces than Chelsea (three compared to four), they have the second-best against xG (2.04) when defending these types of situations, while Chelsea are the second-worst (6.40). Despite an improvement from last season, there may still be problems when Arsenal come to town.

Chelsea must also overcome an increasingly poor record against Arsenal on Sunday, with just one win in their last 11 Premier League games. The Gunners are also unbeaten in six games at Stamford Bridge.

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Can Chelsea reach Arsenal’s level or is he too young?

Chelsea are clearly in the top four based on their underlying statistics.

They started Maresca’s first season well and, interestingly, Chelsea’s defense is stronger this season, despite dealing with the loss of key defender Levi Colwill to a long-term injury.

After Maresca said his team was “not ready” to win the Premier League at this stage last season – despite fans chanting “We have our Chelsea back” – the Italian seems more optimistic this time around.

The 45-year-old said: “It’s surely different to a year ago because we spent another year together.

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“On the other hand, it’s the end of November, so it’s very early. It’s important to see where we are in March or April. In 18 months together, these players have proven many times that they can beat the best teams.”

Maresca hopes to avoid a similar winter slump that almost cost his team qualification for the Champions League last season.

While he did not see qualification as a necessity in 2024-25, it certainly is this season, and his coaching future will be reviewed at the end of this campaign.

That said, Chelsea’s hierarchy would also consider any title challenge this season to be ahead of schedule. They had to give Maresca a vote of confidence last month during an early season wobble.

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At the time, Chelsea faced questions about whether he was too young or rotated too much.

• Including five in the last game, Chelsea have made 103 changes to their starting XI in all competitions this season, the most of any Premier League team, averaging seven or more changes in six straight games (45 in total) before the international break.

• Chelsea had the youngest starting eleven in a 38-game Premier League season in 24-25, with an average of 24 years and 36 days.

• No team has won a Premier League title with an average starting eleven under the age of 25.

• Maresca is picking slightly older players this season, with the average age in the starting XI being 24 years and 169 days, but it is still the fourth-youngest team in Europe’s big five leagues.

• Arsenal, by comparison, are almost two years older per player, at 26 years and 166 days.

Striker Liam Delap suggested he thought Chelsea are capable of winning the Premier League or Champions League on Tuesday night, echoing Colwill’s comments after Chelsea won the Conference League and Club World Cup at the end of last season.

Although it is rarely said publicly, BBC Sport understands that several other players also believe Chelsea can achieve those goals this season.

Additional data collection and visualizations by Chris Collinson