Over the years, Saxo has made what at first glance seem unlikely predictions come true.
Predictions that were much closer to the truth than previously thought:
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Late: Gold Soars to $3,000 as Central Banks Fail Inflation Mandate (2022 OP)
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Trump 2.0 blows up the US dollar (OP for 2025)
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Nvidia soars to double Apple’s value (OP by 2025)
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The plan to end fossil fuels receives a brake (OP for 2022)
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Volatility rises after sudden stock market crash (OP for 2018)
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Bitcoin triples in value, from the current level of $700 to $2100 (OP for 2017)
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The UK is seen leaning towards leaving the EU in 2017 (Brexit) after a landslide UKIP election (PO for 2015)
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Gold corrects to $1,200 per ounce (OP for 2013)
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Saxo forecasts are neither a house view nor a forecast; They are low-probability, high-impact thought experiments designed to stretch the imagination and sharpen debate about what might happen if things move forward in unexpected ways.
“Saxo’s outrageous predictions cover a lot of ground this year. From a veritable alien financial market and weight-loss drugs for pets to Taylor Swift helping to break digital addiction among young people around the world, and something as outrageous as a political event in the United States without unrest.
While predictions are never about being right, they are always about challenging consensus narratives. Maybe in 2026, smooth sailing will be the new outrageous,” says John J. Hardy, global head of macro strategy at Saxo.
Saxo’s outrageous predictions for 2026:
In technology, let’s take cryptography and imagine what would happen if Q-Day suddenly arrives in 2026, the day when quantum machines can effortlessly break yesterday’s digital locks. Cryptocurrencies crash; gold screams up to five figures; All banks and governments are striving to rebuild trust in a post-quantum security stack.
Impact on the market: Volatility in quantum computing stocks, IBM, cybersecurity stocks, bitcoin and other digital assets, gold, banks, etc.
In 2026, markets will discover that sudden cultural changes can affect the macroeconomic. A single wedding – Swift and Kelce – lifts a generation out of fatalistic destiny and into backyards, weddings, and baby strollers. Fertility and household formation increase. Economists coin a new phrase with a smile: Swiftie Put.
Impact on the market: Negative for social media shares, positive for everything related to home building/DIY/decorating, luxury, wedding venues, destinations/travel.
In politics, the aggravated partisanship of recent years is suddenly upended after ugly partisan antics in the US midterm elections shock the silent majority of independents into demanding reforms and a strengthening of democratic institutions. Trump is still Trump, but America is starting to move on.
Impact on the market: US Treasuries rise (lower yields), social media stocks, cryptocurrencies, gold and silver fall.
In medicine, GLP-1 anti-obesity drugs in pill form transform human and even pet health. Waistlines are shrinking, life expectancy is lengthening and all food companies are rushing to reinvent themselves to achieve a lighter world.
Impact on the market: Fast fashion is doing well as more people need to replace entire wardrobes. Winners and losers emerge in food producers, restaurants and pet food manufacturers. Healthcare and Veterinary Stocks Rise as GLP-1 Adoption Widens.
Above the atmosphere, capital markets discover their next frontier. A SpaceX IPO valuation tops $1 trillion, turning the “space economy” from slogan to spreadsheet. Lunar and orbital manufacturing projects migrate from science fiction to the investment committee.
Impact on the market: Rocket companies getting in on the fun, Teledyne, Microchip Technology.
Back on Earth, an AI model becomes a Fortune 500 CEO, executing without ego and forcing boards of directors to consider the unthinkable: a human-machine partnership at the top.
Impact on the market: AI infrastructure, cloud and governance technology companies continue to rise, insurers and auditors reinvent coverage for algorithmic management. Initially, investors assign a new governance risk premium to any company managed according to code.
Geopolitics, never far from the tape in recent years, tests the monetary order as Beijing launches an offshore yuan linked to gold for the redenomination of its trade. The dollar is still king, but not king.
Impact on the market: Gold advances above $6,000, USD/CNH heads below 5.0, US Treasury yields rise on overseas selling. The “golden yuan” becomes a second durable global anchor, which does not replace the dollar, but ends its monopoly.
While carefully constructed and driven AI can help run a business, behind the buzzwords a humiliating reckoning is revealed: Dumb AI, or poorly governed agents and “agent” automations, fail en masse, spawning a trillion-dollar cleanup and a new profession of “AI janitors” to sanitize the code base of modern life.
Impact on the market: Cybersecurity, auditing and consulting companies see their revenues increase, valuations of highly autonomous artificial intelligence platforms face pressure and investors turn to companies that offer resilience, oversight and human control.
“Is Outrageous Smooth Sailing? Saxo Releases Its Annual Outrageous Predictions for 2026” was created and originally published by Retail Banker International, a brand owned by GlobalData.
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