Macy’s: a summary of the year and a look to the future

Macy’s: a summary of the year and a look to the future
Macy’s: a summary of the year and a look to the future

With the holiday season right around the corner, many people are thinking about Macy’s (NYSE: M)Known for its televised Thanksgiving Day parade and famous Christmas window displays. From an investor’s point of view, there are key aspects to consider when analyzing the past year and evaluating key issues for 2026.

This time of year is also a good time for investors to review the retailer’s performance. Once you do, you’ll be able to see the key things to look for in 2026.

Here’s a look back to see what happened with Macy’s over the past year and what to expect in the year ahead.

Three shoppers in a shopping center.
Image source: Getty Images.

Macy’s shareholders have good reason to celebrate this year, as the stock has performed very well this year. The price gained 36.3% through December 16, easily outperforming the S&P 500‘s (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) 14.8%.

Macy’s shareholders and those who passively invest in the S&P 500 also receive dividends. They also influence overall performance. Adding those payments together, Macy’s stock produced a total return of 43.3%, outperforming the S&P 500 by 27.6 percentage points.

It’s a challenge to decipher Macy’s sales, as there have been store closures. The best measure to compare is same-store sales (comps). Management presents this in several ways, but I like the property-plus-license-plus market measure, which includes online sales and apartment sales licensed to others.

On this basis, Macy’s compensation growth has improved this year, including a 3.2% increase in the fiscal third quarter. This increase fell in the period ending November 1.

Management has been executing its turnaround plan, which involves closing underperforming locations, renovating stores and improving customer service. There is also an effort to sell more to high-income consumers, including in its Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury brands.

Fortunately for Macy’s, while lower- and middle-income consumers have been struggling with high overall prices, those on the higher end have fared well. One thing to watch is whether this continues.

A slowdown in home price growth and a pullback in the stock market would be a good indicator of slowness in this group, as they have helped this demographic. You can also look for comparisons of Bloomingdale’s and Bluemercury brands. The former has done especially well, including a 9% increase in the last quarter.

You should also pay attention to other macroeconomic statistics. These include unemployment, consumer confidence and the consumer price index. Remember, Macy’s is trying to appeal to a higher-income consumer.

However, if these statistics worsen dramatically, it could indicate that high-income earners are being affected and discretionary spending on big-ticket items will slow. After all, they are not immune to the economic cycle.

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Lawrence Rothman, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Macy’s: A review of the year and a look ahead was originally published by The Motley Fool

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