March Madness 2026: 4 teams most likely to challenge UConn for NCAA women’s championship

Geno Auriemma’s Huskies are somewhat better this season after losing Paige Bueckers and will enter the NCAA tournament at 34-0. They won the Big East tournament championship over Villanova, 90-51. They beat Creighton in the semifinals, 100-51.

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They won five matchups against ranked opponents by an average of 20 points per game. Only then-No. 6 Michigan managed to stay within single digits of UConn in a 72-69 Huskies victory. That was November 21st.

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Since then, only Villanova on Feb. 18 has finished within 14 points of UConn. But that doesn’t make the Huskies certain to win their 13th national championship.

UConn’s biggest flaw is not its own. It played a weak schedule in the Big East without a ranked opponent which it passed without challenge. How will he respond when facing a battle-tested team in the middle of the NCAA Tournament?

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There is at least one team that could reasonably challenge a healthy UConn team in a single-elimination tournament and a handful of SEC teams looking to join the conversation.

These four teams have the best chances for the upset and UConn’s only loss of the season.

UCLA

UCLA is the clear number one challenger to UConn. In any season where UConn wasn’t doing what it was doing, UCLA would be the undisputed dominant force in the game.

The Bruins are 34-1, with their only loss coming against then-No. 4 Texas on Nov. 26. Since then, they are 25-0 against a considerably tougher schedule than UConn, which features a grueling Big Ten slate.

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While UConn faced five ranked opponents, UCLA faced 13. The Bruins beat 12 of them, including a 96-45 blowout of No. 9 Iowa in the Big Ten championship game. UCLA is 19-1 against Quad 1 opponents versus UConn’s 9-0.

Even Auriemma acknowledged after UCLA’s dominant Big Ten championship win that the Bruins would be a good pick for the No. 1 overall seed.

“If you said UCLA was number one, number one, I’d say, ‘Wow, they’re really good and I wouldn’t have a problem with that,’” Auriemma said. “I mean, look what they did the last game they played.”

UCLA also compares reasonably well to UConn in advanced analytics. UConn ranks second nationally in offensive efficiency. UCLA is number 1

The Huskies rank first in defensive rating, while the Bruins rank 24th. But UCLA has had a much tougher schedule. These measures do not suit the opponents. UCLA’s NET ranking is second only to UConn’s.

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Big Ten Player of the Year and reigning All-American Lauren Betts leads a roster that also features first-team All-Big Ten selection Kiki Rice.

As far as UConn’s rivals go, there’s UCLA and everyone else.

Texas

The rest of UConn’s main rivals come from the SEC. Leading the charge is a Texas team that handed UCLA its only loss and enters the NCAA Tournament on an eight-game winning streak that includes five wins over ranked opponents and an SEC Tournament championship.

Texas made easy work of No. 3 South Carolina in the SEC title game with a 78-61 victory and appears to be peaking at the right time.

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Texas is elite on both ends of the floor, ranking fifth in the nation in offensive rating and third in defensive rating. He achieved those numbers playing in the best conference in the country and producing a 14-3 record against Quad 1 opponents. Only UCLA has more Quad 1 wins.

All-SEC picks Madison Booker and Rori Harmon lead the way.

South Carolina

South Carolina has taken a slight step back toward UConn since winning two national championships in three seasons in 2022 and 2024. But not by much.

South Carolina looked like the best in the SEC for most of the season until Texas’ 17-point victory in the SEC championship represented its second loss to the Longhorns in three meetings.

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The Gamecocks finished 31-3 and 15-1 in the SEC regular season en route to winning the conference regular season title. They are 12-3 against Quad 1 opponents and are third in the NET rankings, ahead of No. 4 Texas.

Like Texas, South Carolina offers it on both sides of the court, ranking fourth in the nation in offensive rating and seventh in defensive rating.

South Carolina is deep. The Gamecocks have five All-SEC selections in Joyce Edwards, Raven Johnson, Tessa Johnson, Ta’Niya Latson and Madina Okot. And they are led by three-time national champion head coach Dawn Staley.

Texas has the advantage against South Carolina, but outside of that matchup, the Gamecocks are as strong a challenger for UConn’s throne as any team outside of UCLA.

L.S.U.

Joining South Carolina is another SEC program with championship pedigree in LSU.

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LSU earned a fourth-place finish in the SEC regular season (12-4) and lost to South Carolina in the tournament semifinals. The Tigers, like their SEC counterparts, are elite on both ends of the floor, ranking third in the nation in offensive rating and fourth in defensive rating.

The Tigers haven’t fared as well against their main competition with a 1-4 record against Texas, LSU and Vanderbilt, which doesn’t bode well for a potential clash with UConn. And their 8-5 record against Quad 1 competition, while good, is not on the same level as previous teams.

What LSU does boast are two All-SEC selections in Flau’jae Johnson and Mikaylah Williams. Johnson is a reigning All-American and former NCAA champion who was a starter on LSU’s 2023 title team as a freshman. Few players in the tournament can match her resume.

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And no coach in the country is as prepared to go toe-to-toe with Auriemma and Staley as Kim Mulkey, who has coached four teams to the NCAA title.