Much more intriguing is the battle for the last spot in the seeding line.
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As recently as Feb. 21, when the selection committee released its top 16 teams for the season, Iowa State controversially snagged the final No. 1 seed. Since then, the Cyclones have lost three of five games, plummeting to a projected No. 3 seed and opening the door for someone else to take their spot.
A two-team race between Florida and UConn will likely determine who supplants Iowa State. The reigning national champion Gators appear to have a narrow lead as both teams prepare to open the conference tournament later this week.
Labeled an early-season disappointment after suffering four losses in its first nine games, including a baffling one against little-known TCU, Florida has unleashed its full potential in SEC play. A deep, physical frontcourt has pounded opponents on the glass and given up nothing easy at the rim, helping the Gators close the regular season on an 11-game winning streak to win the SEC title by three games.
Florida’s 11 Quadrant 1 wins are the fourth-most in the nation, trailing only Arizona, Duke and Michigan. Three of the Gators’ six losses came against other contenders for the top spot in the NCAA tournament.
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
FLORIDA (25-6, 16-2 SEC)
NET: 4 | TYPE: 5 | KenPom 4 | P1A: 3-3 | Q1B: 8-2 | Q2: 7-1 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 0
Marquee wins: at Vanderbilt, Kentucky (2), Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
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Losses: at Duke, Arizona, UConn, TCU, Missouri, Auburn
How could Florida have gotten past UConn when the Huskies earned a head-to-head victory over the Gators at Madison Square Garden in December? Because head-to-head results are just one of the criteria the committee will consider.
Yes, UConn has fewer overall losses and a couple more wins at the top level. But Florida has 11 wins in Quadrant 1; UConn has only 7. Florida is perfect against quadrants 3 and 4; UConn suffered a Quadrant 3 home loss to Creighton last month. Florida is no worse than No. 4 in any of the predictive metrics used by the selection committee; UConn ranks between 8 and 11 in all of them.
UCONN (27-4, 17-3 Big East)
NET: 9 | TYPE: 4 | KenPom 11 | P1A: 5-2 | Q1B: 2-0 | Q2: 9-1 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 1 (Creighton)
Marquee wins: Florida, Illinois, Kansas, St. John’s, BYU
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Losses: Arizona, St. John’s, Marquette, Creighton
For UConn, the good news is that Selection Sunday is still almost a week away. The bad news is that Florida has a better chance of bolstering its resume in the SEC tournament than the Huskies do in the Big East bracket. Florida may have to get through Kentucky or Missouri and Vanderbilt or Tennessee just to get to Sunday’s SEC title game. The only way UConn can really improve its standing would be to win a potential game against St. John’s in the Big East title game.
That means UConn could win the Big East tournament and still have to settle for second place in the Big Dance. The only way the Huskies would have a chance to return to the top of the standings is if someone in the SEC ousts Florida before Sunday’s title game.
What if both Do Florida and UConn exit their respective conference tournaments early? Could someone else win their conference tournament and surpass both the Gators and the Huskies? That seems unlikely considering how recent committees have valued season-long results over a team winning its conference tournament.
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Houston would probably have the best chance with wins over, say, BYU, Kansas and Arizona, while Florida and UConn do nothing to pad their resumes. That scenario would leave the Cougars with 10 Quadrant 1 wins and only top-tier losses, a resume that would surpass UConn’s and certainly force the committee to do a side-by-side comparison with Florida’s.
Emanuel Sharp and the Houston Cougars are in contention for the last number one spot still up for grabs. (AP Photo/Mitch Alcalá)
(ASSOCIATED PRESS)
HOUSTON (26-5, 14-4 Big 12)
NET: 7 | TYPE: 7 | KenPom 6 | P1A: 4-5 | Q1B: 3-0 | Q2: 11-0 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 0
Marquee wins: Texas Tech, Arkansas, at BYU, at TCU
Losses: Arizona, Iowa State, Texas Tech, Kansas, Tennessee
Other than Houston, it’s hard to see anyone else making a compelling case. The ceiling for Michigan State, Iowa State and Illinois is probably the No. 2 line.
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History suggests that No. 1 seeds do considerably better in the NCAA tournament than teams that settle for a No. 2. There have been 11 15-on-2 upsets since the tournament expanded to 64 teams in 1985. Only UMBC and Fairleigh Dickinson have ever achieved a 16-on-1 stunner.
No. 1 seeds have reached twice as many Final Fours as No. 2 seeds since 1985. Twenty-six times, a No. 1 seed has won the national championship during that span. A number 2 seed has only cut the nets five times.
That’s good news for Duke, Michigan and Arizona, each of which has already solidified its No. 1 seeds. All three enter the conference tournament with matching 29-2 records and at least 14 Quadrant 1 wins. Those are numbers no one else in the country can match.
DUQUE (29-2, 17-1 ACC)
NET: 1 | TYPE: 3 | KenPom 1 | P1A: 9-2 | Q1B: 6-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 0
Marquee wins: Michigan, Florida, Michigan, Arkansas, Kansas, Louisville (2)
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Losses: Texas Tech, North Carolina
MICHIGAN (29-2, 19-1 Big Ten)
NET: 2 | TYPE: 1 | KenPom 2 | P1A: 9-1 | Q1B: 5-1 | Q2: 8-0 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 0
Marquee wins: in Illinois, Gonzaga, Purdue, Michigan State (2), Nebraska
Losses: Duke, Wisconsin
ARIZONA (29-2, 16-2 Big 12)
NET: 3 | TYPE: 2 | KenPom 3 | P1A: 7-2 | Q1B: 8-0 | Q2: 5-0 | Third and fourth quarter losses: 0
Marquee wins: Florida, Houston, Iowa State, UConn, Alabama, Kansas, BYU (2)
Losses: Texas Tech, in Kansas
Who is the number one overall? It’s an extraordinarily difficult decision, but fortunately it won’t matter. Duke will be number one in the Washington DC region, Michigan in Chicago and Arizona in San Jose.
This way, each of them will get the proximity they want to their campuses. Then they can fight from there.