Mariners vs Blue Jays home run picks and best bets for ALCS Game 1

My MLB player props and home run analysis highlights Julio Rodriguez and Daulton Varsho in the outfield.

Find out more in my MLB picks for Sunday, October 12.

Mariners vs. Blue Jays Game 1 home run props

Mariners home run pick

Julio Rodríguez (+400 at BetMGM)

Seattle Mariners center fielder Julio Rodríguez has hit 23 of his 32 home runs on the road this season, batting .296 with a .571 slugging percentage in that division.

Meanwhile, the upcoming matchup against Toronto Blue Jays right-hander Kevin Gausman is enticing. In his only postseason start, Gausman threw 37 four-seamers and 34 splitters, mixing in just four sliders.

Against those two top offerings, Rodriguez has been a threat: He owns a .530 xSLG versus split toe and a .537 xSLG against four-seamers, ranking first and third on the team, respectively.

While he’s only 4-for-17 against Gausman in his career, one of those hits was a home run, and his .295 xBA and .476 xSLG provide plenty of reason for optimism.

Blue Jays Home Run Picks

Daulton Varsho (+425 at BetMGM)

Daulton Varsho has been red-hot down the stretch, hitting .438 this postseason with an expected slugging percentage of .617 to rank third on the team.

He hit two home runs in Game 2 of the ALDS, and Varsho will now face a favorable matchup against Bryce Miller.

The biggest problem for the slugger has been missing right-handed fastballs, but Miller’s four-seamer has a weak 23% swing rate, meaning we should see the lefty’s 22.6% swing rate against this pitch.

Varsho owns a 50.9% hard hit rate against four-seamer right-handed pitchers and has hit seven home runs in the field this year.

How to watch Mariners vs Blue Jays and Game 1 information

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