Hurricane hunters were forced to halt their reconnaissance mission for Category 5 Hurricane Melissa on Monday morning, Oct. 27, after encountering severe turbulence (and gusts over 200 mph) in the southwest wall of the storm’s eye, according to the National Hurricane Center.
The decision comes as Melissa strengthens into a catastrophic Category 5 hurricane, threatening Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.
“The aircraft exited the storm early after experiencing severe turbulence in the southwest eyewall,” NOAA said in a statement, marking a rare disruption to hurricane reconnaissance missions.
Melissa’s slow westward drift is expected to turn northward over the next 12 hours and then northeastward as it encounters a westerly flow at mid-latitudes. Forecasts place the hurricane near or over Jamaica on Monday night or early Tuesday, October 28 and 29, crossing eastern Cuba Tuesday night into Wednesday, and then approaching the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands on Wednesday. Bermuda could see effects on Thursday night, October 30.
Even before the eye reaches land, the impacts are felt, with hurricane-force winds extending about 195 miles from the center. Moving at just 3 mph, Melissa is essentially hovering over the islands, causing long, sustained impacts that could last for days.
“Jamaica: Do not venture out of your safe haven,” the NHC wrote. “Catastrophic and life-threatening flash flooding and numerous landslides are likely today through Tuesday. Destructive winds will begin this afternoon, especially in the mountains.”
Several experts have compared the hurricane to the impacts of Hurricane Helene in the Appalachians last year, as the storm will affect the entire island, but will also reach higher elevations.
“There really is no practical difference in Melissa making landfall in Jamaica at a Category 4 or 5 intensity, as both categories can produce catastrophic wind damage,” NHC forecasters said.
While there may be fluctuations in intensity due to an expected eyewall replacement cycle, forecasters say making landfall in Jamaica as a Category 4 or 5 hurricane would be catastrophic. Jamaica faces life-threatening flash flooding, landslides and potentially total structural damage, particularly in higher elevation areas. Haiti and the Dominican Republic are also at risk of catastrophic flooding and landslides, while Cuba, the Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands should prepare for dangerous winds, storm surge and heavy rain.
Authorities in affected regions urge residents to complete preparations immediately and avoid venturing outside safe shelters.
At least four deaths have already been attributed to Melissa in Haiti and the Dominican Republic as of Saturday afternoon, AccuWeather reported.
Where is Hurricane Melissa headed?
Special note on the NHC cone: The forecast track shows the most likely path of the storm center. It does not illustrate the full width of the storm or its impacts, and the center of the storm likely travels outside the cone up to 33% of the time.
Hurricane Melissa recap, as of 8 a.m. Oct. 27:
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Location: 135 miles southwest of Kingston, Jamaica; 320 miles southwest of Guantanamo, Cuba; 724 miles south of West Palm Beach, Florida
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Maximum sustained winds: 160 mph
Melissa could strengthen further over the next 12 to 24 hours over warm Caribbean waters south of Jamaica, where wind shear is relatively low, forecasters said. It is expected to be a powerful major hurricane when it makes landfall in Jamaica on Tuesday morning, October 28, and in southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night, October 29, and Wednesday.
When will Hurricane Melissa hit Jamaica? What you need to know
As of 8 a.m., the distinctive eye of Hurricane Melissa was located near latitude 16.4 north and longitude 78.0 west.
Melissa is moving west near 3 mph. A slow turn toward the northwest and north is expected today and tonight, followed by a northeastward acceleration beginning Tuesday and continuing at least through Thursday.
On the forecast track, the core of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica tonight and Tuesday, across southeastern Cuba on Tuesday night, and across the southeastern Bahamas on Wednesday.
Reports from NOAA and Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate maximum sustained winds are near 160 mph with higher gusts. Melissa is a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is forecast today, with fluctuations in intensity likely before Melissa makes landfall in Jamaica early Tuesday.
Melissa is expected to reach Jamaica and southeastern Cuba as a powerful major hurricane, and will remain at hurricane strength as it passes through the southeastern Bahamas.
Hurricane-force winds extend up to 30 miles from the center and tropical storm-force winds extend up to 195 miles.
The minimum central pressure from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft data is 913 mb (26.96 inches).
Live webcams of Hurricane Melissa in Jamaica
Kingston Harbor, Jamaica
Barbicon Square, Kingston, Jamaica
Half Way Tree Clock Intersection, Jamaica
What is “rapid escalation”?
According to the National Hurricane Center, “rapid intensification” occurs when a tropical cyclone’s maximum sustained winds increase by at least 30 knots (34.5 mph) in 24 hours. That’s a jump of about two categories on the Saffir-Simpson scale, which measures hurricane strength and potential damage from 1 to 5.
“Rapid intensification occurs when a tropical storm or hurricane encounters an extremely favorable environment,” Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach said in 2020. “Typically, this environment consists of very warm water, low vertical wind shear, and high mid-level humidity.”
Hurricane Melissa gained strength as it passed over the warm waters of the Caribbean, forecasters said.
Of 104 Category 3 or higher hurricanes between 1990 and 2022, 88% of them experienced rapid intensification according to a 2022 study by Klotzbach. Last year, 13 of the 37 named storms in the Atlantic and Pacific intensified rapidly.
Other conditions can also contribute to rapid intensification, such as light upper atmospheric winds under a high-pressure area, allowing a hurricane to ventilate and strengthen, Weather.com said.
Where is the storm headed next? View Hurricane Melissa spaghetti models, path, projected path
Storm Tracker: How strong is Hurricane Melissa and where is it heading?
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Brandi D. Addison covers weather in the United States as the Weather Connect Reporter for the USA TODAY Network. You can contact her at baddison@gannett.com. Find her on Facebook here.
This article originally appeared in the Fort Myers News-Press: Hurricane Melissa reaches gusts over 200 mph. Here’s why the hurricane hunter fled