Washington– A Special elections An election in a small swing district in Michigan on Tuesday could have big consequences, determining whether Democrats maintain their slim majority in the state Senate during the final months of the governor’s term. Gretchen Whitmer condition.
Democrat Chedrick Greene and Republican Jason Toney are vying for the 35th state Senate seat left vacant in January 2025. Libertarian candidate Ali Sleds is also running. The district is located about 100 miles (160 kilometers) north of Detroit and includes Saginaw, Bay City and Midland.
Whitmer, a term-limited Democrat, is holding a contest The race is in November For its success. With Democrats currently controlling the state Senate 19-18, Tuesday’s result will be key to the state’s legislative agenda in the months before she leaves office in January.
Beyond the immediate risks, political insiders are watching the race for clues about the November midterm elections in this battleground state. The district includes part of Saginaw County, and is the only Michigan county to support the winning presidential candidate in each of the past five national elections.
“It’s really this microcosm of the Midwest, frankly,” Democratic U.S. Rep. Christine McDonald Rivett said of the seat she vacated upon entering Congress. “Given how similar it is to so many other places around the country, we have to look at it and say, this is an indication of how things are going to go in November.”
Green is a fire captain and Marine Corps veteran who campaigned on cutting costs while emphasizing his union’s support. Tony, a former prosecutor, ran as a conservative Republican, highlighting his local Saginaw roots.
Republicans also made the timing of the special election a central issue, saying Whitmer, a Democrat, waited too long to announce it — leaving the district without representation in the state Senate for nearly 500 days.
A Greene victory would keep Democrats in the majority. If Tony wins, the Senate will be tied, making it difficult for Democrats to advance their agenda. While Democratic Lieutenant Governor Garlin Gilchrist II would serve as the tie-breaking vote, Republicans could effectively block any action by not having all members vote. Republicans control the Michigan House of Representatives.
Tuesday’s special election only extends through the end of the year, meaning the seat will be up for re-election again in November. However, the race is seen as a test of voters’ emotions ahead of the midterm elections, when Democrats will look to regain power in Congress.
Some strategists caution against over-interpreting the results, pointing to heavy Democratic spending and high-level visits by figures such as former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and Michigan Sen. Elissa Slotkin. The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee invested $250,000 to support Greene in February and said the race “will set the tone for the midterms.”
“This is a tough race to win in any environment, but they’ve stacked the deck with spending,” said Jason Rowe, a Republican strategist in the state. “And if you put the overall political environment on top of that, it’s going to be tough.”
Although Republican Donald Trump won all three districts in the 2024 presidential race, the portions of the districts that fall within the 35th District are more competitive. MacDonald Rivett won the seat in 2022 with 53% of the vote. Democrat Kamala Harris barely edged Trump in the district in 2024, 49.7% to 48.9%, thanks to a 17 percentage point lead in the Saginaw portion of the district.
Once a center for the auto industry, the area has a large proportion of unionized voters and a large black population, surrounded by more conservative rural areas.
Corey Smit, interim director of Michigan State University’s Institute for Public Policy and Social Research, said the region “is similar to the state as a whole.” Although he cautioned against viewing the result as a clear signal for the midterm elections, he said turnout rates and voting patterns among different groups could provide valuable insights.
___
Associated Press reporter Robert Yuen contributed from Washington.