The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today rose +0.05%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) rose +0.12% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) fell -0.30%. December E-mini S&P Futures (ESZ25) rose +0.03% and December E-mini Nasdaq Futures (NQZ25) fell -0.25%.
Stock indices are mixed today, with the Dow Jones Industrials hitting a one-and-a-half-week high. The broader market is rising slightly on some positive corporate news. General Motors is up more than +12% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate. Additionally, RTX Corp is up more than 10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate. Additionally, Coca-Cola is up more than +3% after reporting better-than-expected third-quarter comparable EPS.
On the downside, mining stocks are under pressure today, with the price of gold falling by more than -3% and silver prices falling by more than -5%.
Gains in stocks are limited as they consolidate some of the strong gains made over the past two sessions. The market is focusing on the progress of trade talks between the United States and China, as President Trump on Monday reiterated his threat to increase tariffs on Chinese goods “if there is no deal” by November 1. President Trump is scheduled to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping next week on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation conference in South Korea.
In some minor US economic news, the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s October non-manufacturing business activity survey fell -9.9 to a 4-month low of -22.2.
The US government shutdown continues into its fourth week, weighing on market sentiment and delaying key economic reports. The government shutdown means delays in the release of government reports, including the last three weeks of weekly initial jobless claims and the September payrolls report. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) said the September consumer price report, which was initially scheduled to be released last Wednesday, will be released this Friday. The White House has warned that if the government shutdown is prolonged, it would lead to widespread layoffs of employees in government programs that do not align with President Trump’s priorities. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be laid off during the shutdown, which would expand jobless claims and push the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
Trade tensions between the US and China, the ongoing US government shutdown and fears over US credit quality have sparked a wave of safe haven buying in precious metals, with gold and silver hitting new all-time highs last Friday.
This week markets will focus on earnings results as the third quarter earnings season continues. Rising corporate earnings expectations are a bullish backdrop for stocks. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of S&P 500 companies that have reported so far have beaten forecasts. Additionally, more than 22% of S&P 500 companies that have provided guidance for their third-quarter earnings results are expected to beat analyst expectations, the highest in a year. However, third quarter earnings are expected to have increased +7.2% year-on-year, the smallest increase in two years. Additionally, third quarter sales growth is expected to slow to +5.9% year-on-year from 6.4% in the second quarter.
Markets are pricing in a 99% chance of a -25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on October 28-29.
Foreign stock markets are higher today. The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new all-time high and rose +0.05%. China’s Shanghai Composite closed up +1.36%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 hit a new all-time high and closed +0.27%.
Interest rates
December 10-Year Treasury Bonds (ZNZ5) are up +5 ticks. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -2.7 bps to 3.953%. T-note prices today are slightly higher. Treasuries are supported by the ongoing US government shutdown, which could lead to additional job losses, reduced consumer spending and a weakened US economy, potentially allowing the Federal Reserve to continue cutting interest rates. Treasuries held onto modest gains after the Philadelphia Federal Reserve’s October non-manufacturing business activity survey fell to a 4-month low.
European government bond yields are falling today. The 10-year German bond yield is down -2.2 bp to 2.555%. The 10-year UK bond yield is down -3.2bp to 4.473%.
The swaps price in a 2% chance that the ECB will cut rates by -25 bps at its next policy meeting on October 30.
US Stock Engines
General Motors (GM) has risen more than +12% to lead gains in the S&P 500 after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $9.75-$10.50 from a previous estimate of $8.25-$10.00.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) has risen more than 10% to lead gains on the Nasdaq 100 after announcing it has initiated a review of strategic alternatives to maximize shareholder value.
RTX Corp (RTX) is up more than 10% after raising its full-year adjusted sales estimate to $86.5 billion-$87 billion from a previous estimate of $84.75 billion-$85.5 billion.
Halliburton (HAL) is up more than +8% after reporting third-quarter revenue of $5.6 billion, better than the consensus of $5.39 billion.
Danaher (DHR) is up over +8% after reporting third-quarter adjusted EPS of $1.89, stronger than the consensus of $1.72.
Crown Holdings (CCK) is up more than +4% after raising its full-year adjusted EPS estimate to $7.70-$7.80 from a previous estimate of $7.10-$7.50, above the consensus of $7.39.
Coca-Cola (KO) has risen more than +3% to lead gains in the Dow Jones industrials after reporting comparable third-quarter EPS of 82 cents, above the consensus of 78 cents.
3M Co (MMM) is up more than +2% after raising its full-year adjusted continuing operations EPS to $7.95-$8.05 from a previous estimate of $7.75-$8.00.
Mining stocks are under pressure today, with gold prices falling more than -3% and silver prices falling more than -5%. As a result, Newmont (NEM) is down more than -8% to lead the losers in the S&P 500. Additionally, Barrick Mining (B), Coeur Mining (CDE), Kinross Gold (KGC), Anglogold Ashanti Plc (AU), and Freeport McMoRan (FCX) are down more than -3%.
Cleveland-Cliffs (CLF) is down more than -14% after Wells Fargo Securities downgraded the stock to underweight from equal weight with a $11 price target.
NuScale Power (SMR) is down more than -7% after Citigroup downgraded the stock to sell from neutral with a price target of $37.50.
Elevance Health (ELV) is down more than -4% despite reporting better-than-expected third-quarter operating income after the company said it views Medicaid operating margin for 2025 as “modestly negative.”
PulteGroup (PHM) is down more than -3% after reporting that Q3 housing backlog fell -18% year over year to 9,888, below the consensus of 9,990.
Northrop Grumman (NOC) is down more than -1% after cutting its full-year sales forecast to $41.7 billion-$41.9 billion from a previous estimate of $43.05 billion-$42.25 billion, weaker than the consensus of $42.22 billion.
WR Berkley (WRB) is down more than -1% after reporting Q3 net written premiums of $3.23 billion, missing the consensus of $3.28 billion.
Earnings Reports (10/21/2025)
3M Co (MMM), Agree Realty Corp (ADC), Capital One Financial Corp (COF), Chubb Ltd (CB), Coca-Cola Co/The (KO), Danaher Corp (DHR), East West Bancorp Inc (EWBC), Elevance Health Inc (ELV), EQT Corp (EQT), Equifax Inc (EFX), General Electric Co (GE), General Motors Co (GM), Genuine Parts Co (GPC), Halliburton Co (HAL), Intuitive Surgical Inc (ISRG), Lockheed Martin Corp (LMT), Manhattan Associates Inc (MANH), Matador Resources Co (MTDR), Mattel Inc (MAT), Nasdaq Inc (NDAQ), Netflix Inc (NFLX), Northrop Grumman Corp (NOC), Omnicom Group Inc (OMC), PACCAR Inc (PCAR), Pegasystems Inc (PEGA), Pentair PLC (PNR), Philip Morris International Inc (PM), PulteGroup Inc (PHM), Quest Diagnostics Inc (DGX), RTX Corp (RTX), Texas Instruments Inc (TXN), Valmont Industries Inc (VMI), Weatherford International PLC (WFRD), Western Alliance Bancorp (WAL).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
