Solana is struggling to recover as the broader cryptocurrency slowdown spreads, leaving a large portion of its circulating supply at a loss and raising the likelihood of stronger downside moves.
The latest on-chain data shows that Nearly 80% of all SOLs in circulation are currently below their cost base.. Analysts warn that when most investors fall into loss territory, the market often becomes more fragile as traders try to protect remaining capital.
According to market data, around $239 million in leveraged long positions would be liquidated if Solana falls below $124.40creating a concentrated pressure point that could accelerate price declines. Solana is trading around $129showing minor movement in the last 24 hours, but still located near an area where forced selling could increase rapidly.
Prediction markets currently give low probability Solana is expected to reach a new all-time high by the end of the year, indicating that speculators expect weaker conditions ahead.
Lawrence Samantha, CEO of NOBI, noted that large liquidation phases tend to reset overheated market structures, allowing stronger foundations to form later. However, he also noted that Solana-centric treasury desks remain deeply submergedwith many management values ​​close to 0.6 mNAV. More losses could force these desks to dispose of assets to cover operational needs, which would add more selling pressure.
Key Economic Events Traders Are Watching
Although the market has been under pressure for several weeks, a brief weekend rally has stabilized sentiment. Traders are now monitoring two upcoming developments:
Either event could trigger a strong price movement in risk assets if the announcements differ from expectations.
Samantha noted that daily price swings offer limited insight compared to long-term positioning. He pointed to Steady inflows into Solana spot ETFswhich have added approximately $719 million since its debut without a single day of negative net flow. According to him, this reflects sustained institutional demand rather than short-term speculation.
When asked about the possibility of the market bottoming, he said current conditions do not yet meet the typical bottoming indicators. Historically, lasting lows appear when leverage is removed, volatility falls and long-term buyers begin to quietly accumulate.
Price levels around Solana remain sensitive due to the large group of liquidations just below the current range. Market participants are monitoring the same support zones that caused strong position closings earlier this month. These areas have repeatedly produced high liquidation volume, which is why they remain critical for traders’ short-term analysis.
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