NCAA Women's Tournament Power Rankings: These 16 Teams Could Win The Championship

Editor’s note: This article is part of the Bracket Central series, an inside look at the lead-up to the men’s and women’s NCAA tournaments, along with analysis and picks during the tournaments.

It was a very pale first round, as expected, particularly with the four No. 1 seeds showing complete dominance. But from here, things get more challenging. After all, it was just three years ago that the second round turned chaotic as No. 9 Miami knocked out No. 1 Indiana and No. 8 Ole Miss took care of No. 1 Stanford. This crop of No. 1s seems poised to withstand unexpected offers, but some of the other top 16 finishers don’t. Let’s see how everyone compares after the first round:

Connecticut Huskies

It’s hard to get much out of a 90-52 first-round win, but one thing’s for sure: UConn is still the team to beat. The Huskies have relied heavily on Sarah Strong and Azzi Fudd this season, but Ashlynn Shade, Blanca Quinonez and Kayleigh Heckel provided a boost against the USTA. Heckel was particularly impressive, coming off the bench to record 11 points, five assists, four rebounds and three steals. That’s a great sign for the Huskies. They will need everyone, not just their two stars, to repeat as champions.

UCLA Bruins

As expected, UCLA dominated its first-round opponent, Cal Baptist, to win 96-43. But the Bruins were sluggish at first, leading by just six points midway through the second quarter, before taking a 10-point lead into halftime. Everything coach Cori Close said during the break worked, and UCLA outscored the Lancers 52-9 the rest of the game. A slow start isn’t a problem against a 16th seed, but it can’t keep happening. UCLA is seeking the program’s first NCAA championship, and that requires perfection. Expect the Bruins to come out strong against Oklahoma State on Monday.

Texas Longhorns

Defense has been the Longhorns’ calling card all season, and that was on full display in an 87-45 win over No. 16 Missouri State. They held the Bears to 29 percent shooting and 20 percent from beyond the arc, while forcing 19 turnovers, leading to 28 points on the other end. Texas has a challenging road ahead. The Longhorns should handily defeat Oregon, but then they’ll play either Kentucky or West Virginia. The Wildcats have experience against Texas in the SEC, playing relatively close in a 64-53 loss in February. Meanwhile, West Virginia is one of the best defensive teams in the country. Texas is playing very well, but there will be even less room for error in the future.

South Carolina Gamecocks

The Gamecocks are in good shape as they prepare for a second-round game against USC, which they beat by 17 points earlier in the season. USC has struggled lately, while South Carolina has improved throughout the season. Barring any surprises, the Gamecocks will play Oklahoma in the Sweet 16 for a rematch of their Jan. 22 contest, which Oklahoma won 94-82 in overtime. Expect Dawn Staley to make adjustments if they meet again.

Vanderbilt Commodores

Mikayla Blakes is the type of player who can absolutely lead a team in March. It is almost impossible to protect it and when it heats up (which happens often) the rest of the Commodores feed off its energy. In their first-round matchup against No. 15 High Point, Blakes scored 30 points. That is his 12th game this season with at least 30 points. The Commodores have plenty of talent around Blakes, such as rookie guard Aubrey Galvan and 3-point shooter Justine Pissott, but they will go where Blakes takes them. Luckily for Vandy, she looks poised for a deep run.

Duke blue devils

The Blue Devils opened the season with a 58-52 loss to Baylor, but that team is much different than the Blue Devils who will play the Bears on Sunday. Duke has improved dramatically since the loss and is coming off a quiet win against Charleston. Meanwhile, Baylor had to pick up the win against Nebraska, escaping with a 67-62 victory. The first time these teams met, senior Ashlon Jackson struggled, going 1-for-9 on 3-pointers. Expect a revenge game from Jackson this time.

LSU Tigers

Several seeds had slow starts in their first-round games, including UCLA, the No. 1 seed in the region, LSU. The Tigers were not so lucky, outscoring Jacksonville 34-14 in the first quarter. There was no letup, as LSU outscored Jacksonville in each of the remaining three quarters. Sure, it was a lower-level opponent, but the ability to start and finish well is a huge advantage in March. LSU also got solid performances from bigs Kate Koval and Grace Knox, which is a good sign for their upcoming matchup with Texas Tech. The Red Raiders are undersized, so the subsequent game will be crucial for LSU.

Michigan Wolverines

The Wolverines did everything right against Holy Cross, with four players finishing in double figures, while holding the Crusaders to 37 percent shooting. But their next game won’t be easy. Despite being the seventh seed and having a 21-10 record, NC State has a lot of talent. Forward Khamil Pierre will be particularly difficult to deal with, as the 6-foot-2 forward averages 16.8 points and 12 rebounds per game. The Wolverines will need a strong defensive performance from Ashley Sofilkanich to limit Pierre.

Oklahoma Early

It could be tempting for the Sooners to look ahead to a potential Sweet 16 game against South Carolina. But Michigan State is a formidable opponent. The Spartans have an excellent core of guards, led by three double-digit scorers: Kennedy Blair, Rashunda Jones and Jalyn Brown. They match up well with Oklahoma’s guards. The Sooners, however, will have an advantage in the paint with 6-5 center Raegan Beers. They will have to make it a priority against Michigan State.

TCU horned frogs

Olivia Miles was excellent against UC San Diego in the first round, finishing with 12 points, 16 rebounds and 14 assists for another triple-double. Next up is Washington, which could cause problems for the Horned Frogs. Both teams have great defenses, so this game could also come down to the paint. Freshman forward Brynn McGaughy has been solid for Washington all season, but at 6-3, she gives up a big height advantage to Clara Silva (6-7) and the rest of TCU’s bigs. That could be the difference in the game.

Ohio State Buckeyes

I can’t imagine a better guard matchup than Ohio State’s Jaloni Cambridge against Notre Dame’s Hannah Hidalgo. Notre Dame is playing its best basketball of the season, but so are the Buckeyes, who just defeated Howard 75-54. Hidalgo and Cambridge are likely to cancel each other out, so this game could come down to their supporting casts. If Ohio State beats the Irish, things will get exponentially tougher as Vanderbilt likely awaits in the Sweet 16.

Louisville Cardinals

The Cardinals got off to a slow start in their first-round game against Vermont, entering the second quarter trailing 17-16. The main concern about Louisville remains the same: This team is very talented but also relatively inexperienced. One of those juniors, sophomore forward Mackenly Randolph, had one of her best games of the season, recording 20 points and 11 rebounds. That’s a good sign for Louisville, as it needs a versatile interior game to compete with Alabama’s 6-4 junior Essence Cody in the next round.

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers will have their hands full against Kentucky’s two elite bigs in Clara Strack and Teonni Key. But the Wildcats will also face a challenge with West Virginia’s guards. The SEC is a tough conference, but Kentucky has yet to face a defense like the Mountaineers. Taking care of the ball will be vital for the Wildcats. If West Virginia can speed up the game and create chaos on defense, the Mountaineers could be looking for their first Sweet 16 since 1992.

North Carolina Tar Heels

After defeating West Virginia 82-51 in the first round, the Tar Heels turn their attention to Maryland and the question: “Who can defend Oluchi Okananwa?” The Terrapins guard has a special ability to dissect defenses and score at the rim or on the fast break. Containing it has to be the number one priority for UNC. Fortunately for the Tar Heels, they have seen Okananwa before, as he played for Duke during his first two seasons. Not so fortunate, however, is the fact that Okananwa had 12 points, 12 rebounds and 3 at the buzzer the last time they played. UNC can’t let Okananwa get hot.

Minnesota Golden Moles

The Gophers got off to a slow start against Green Bay, but finished the game on a 30-9 run. They can’t afford that kind of start against Ole Miss, a team that will already be a tough opponent. Cotie McMahon is one of the toughest singles matchups in the country, and the Gophers will have their work cut out for them trying to stop her. The senior forward averages 19.7 points per game, using her strength and speed to get to the rim. The Gophers will need to play total team defense to limit McMahon and have a chance to win.

Iowa Hawkeye

It’s time to worry about the Hawkeyes. Losing big to UCLA in the Big Ten title game is one thing, but barely beating No. 15 seed Fairleigh Dickinson in the first round is quite another. Sophomore center Ava Heiden was excellent once again with 29 points and 7 rebounds, while senior forward Hannah Stuelke had 13 points and 16 rebounds. But the Hawkeyes need more from their guards. Next up is a Virginia team that is much better than its No. 10 seed lets on. Forward Sa’Myah Smith fits in well with Iowa’s bigs and point guard Kymora Johnson is coming off a 28-point performance. The Hawkeyes have their work cut out for them.

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This article originally appeared in The Athletic.

Minnesota Golden Gophers, Duke Blue Devils, Ohio State Buckeyes, Oklahoma Sooners, UCLA Bruins, South Carolina Gamecocks, Vanderbilt Commodores, Louisville Cardinals, Iowa Hawkeyes, TCU Horned Frogs, West Virginia Mountaineers, Connecticut Huskies, LSU Lady Tigers, Michigan Wolverines, Texas Longhorns, Women’s College Basketball, Bracket Central

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