By Olesya Astakhova, Ahmad Ghaddar and Alex Lawler
LONDON/MOSCOW (Reuters) – OPEC+ is set to agree on another modest increase in oil output targets on Sunday, three sources familiar with the talks said, as the producer group tempers plans to regain market share due to growing fears of oversupply.
OPEC+ has raised its production targets by more than 2.7 million barrels per day (about 2.5% of global supply) since April, but slowed the pace in October and November due to larger increases amid predictions of an imminent supply glut.
New Western sanctions on OPEC+ member Russia add to the challenges in the discussions, as Moscow may struggle to boost output further after the United States and Britain imposed new measures on top producers Rosneft and Lukoil.
Eight OPEC+ members (Saudi Arabia, Russia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Kazakhstan and Algeria) will agree on Sunday to increase December production targets by 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), the three sources said.
They declined to be identified because they are not allowed to speak to the media. A fourth source said a pause in production increases was also possible.
Oil prices fell to a five-month low of around $60 a barrel on Oct. 20 on concerns that oversupply was building, but have since recovered to around $65 a barrel due to Russian sanctions and optimism about U.S. talks with its trading partners.
Analysts including RBC, Rystad, Commerzbank and SEB said this week they expect OPEC+ to raise its targets by 137,000 bpd for December.
Sunday’s meeting is scheduled for 16:00 GMT, the three sources said.
OPEC+ had been reducing production for several years until April and the cuts peaked in March, amounting to 5.85 million bpd in total. The cuts were made up of three elements: voluntary cuts of 2.2 million bpd, 1.65 million bpd by eight members and another 2 million bpd by the entire group.
The group has been unwinding voluntary cuts, while the last element of the group-wide cuts will remain in place until the end of 2026.
(Additional reporting by Maha El Dahan; writing by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Hugh Lawson)