Quantum computing stocks are among the best bets in the artificial intelligence (AI) industry.
Proprietary developers like Rigetti Computing are among the most popular quantum AI stocks.
While Rigetti’s momentum appears unstoppable, history suggests the company’s valuation is unsustainable.
10 stocks we like better than Rigetti Computing ›
While artificial intelligence (AI) stocks have performed well throughout 2025, one particular segment of the AI space stands out from the rest: quantum computing. At market close on December 23, shares of the Challenge Quantum ETF gained 37% year-on-year, more than double the S&P 500.
Some of the biggest winners of this exchange-traded fund (ETF) are quant pure plays, including Rigetti Computing(NASDAQ:RGTI) — whose shares have soared 46% this year.
Let’s dive into why there is so much excitement around Rigetti Computing and assess whether the red-hot stock can continue to rise in 2026.
Image source: Getty Images.
While quantum AI remains an exploratory and theoretical pursuit among research laboratories and higher education institutions, some believe the technology has the potential to revolutionize critical applications in clinical research, financial risk, logistics, supply chain management, and manufacturing.
Management consulting firm McKinsey & Company estimates that quantum computing could add up to $2 trillion in economic value over the next decade. For now, however, there are only a small number of companies dedicated to developing quantum computing technology.
Rigetti Computing manufactures quantum processors and computers that can be accessed through a cloud infrastructure. By employing a vertically integrated model (controlling the manufacturing process of its chips and designing its own software), Rigetti aims to usher in a new era of computing beyond what today’s most capable systems can handle.
This is important for the future of AI because if Rigetti achieves a quantum breakthrough, its full suite of hardware and software could enable next-generation algorithms that current GPUs simply aren’t designed to handle.
A common mistake that beginner investors often make is following the crowd. Sometimes investors chase momentum stocks, knowingly buying stocks at a premium in hopes of turning around their position to make a profit. This is known as the greater fool theory.
Smart investors avoid this strategy. A thorough valuation analysis is required to determine whether a stock is truly a reasonable buy.
Early Internet pioneers, such as Amazon and eBay It peaked at price-to-sales (P/S) multiples of 51 and 144 respectively before the dot-com bubble burst. Right now, Rigetti Computing trades at a P/S ratio of 925, a completely different universe from even the most euphoric dot-com darlings.
RGTI PS Ratio Data by YCharts
Another important fact to understand about capital markets is that stocks do not rise linearly. While Rigetti stock is up 46% in 2025, the stock has seen gains of more than 200% this year and is up about 2,600% throughout the AI revolution.
Given the company’s parabolic rise combined with historical valuation trends, I think it’s safe to say that Rigetti Computing stock is overbought and a pullback has begun. The question is: how much correction could there be in the future?
Back in the year 2000, cisco It was the largest company in the world, with a market capitalization of $555 billion. But after the dot-com bubble, the Internet pioneer saw its valuation drop to $63 billion, almost a 90% drop. Today, Cisco’s market capitalization remains more than 40% below its all-time high of 25 years ago.
It is important to note that past results do not guarantee future performance in the stock market. That said, the reality is that developers like Rigetti are similar to investing in an early-stage startup: with limited revenue traction, unproven product-market fit, and constant cash burn.
In this context, I think quantum computing stocks have come too close to the sun and a sharp pullback could be on the horizon next year. Using Cisco as a proxy, I think it’s more likely that Rigetti could go under in a similar fashion to what happened in the immediate aftermath of the dotcom boom.
Depending on the magnitude of a potential liquidation, I think a realistic range for Rigetti stock could be between $3 and $7 by the end of 2026. I think investing in Rigetti Computing is highly speculative and best avoided. I see stocks becoming a falling knife in the not-too-distant future. Smart investors know not to chase narratives and hold on to the stock market.
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Adam Spatacco has positions at Amazon. The Motley Fool ranks and recommends Amazon, Cisco Systems, and eBay. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Prediction: Rigetti Computing Stock Will Be Worth This Much by End of 2026 was originally published by The Motley Fool
