The predictions of an excess oil have dominated the presentation of oil market reports for months. Bloomberg suggested this week that the first signs of excess supply can already be emerging, with several million barrels of oil from the Middle East not sold in the last cycle of the spot market. However, some analysts do not agree that there is the danger of an excess: winter comes and, therefore, is supplied for the heating season.
Somewhere between 6 million barrels and 12 million barrels of crude oil produced in the Middle East found no buyers in the last cycle of the spot market, with deliveries for November, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing merchants. The report speculated that this could be the first sign of the long -awaited excess that almost everyone has been predicting, because Buyers of India and China were in no hurry to buy the charges.
The report also pointed out a flatter futures curve for the ABU Dhabi Murban mixture, which used to be quite optimistic but has softened lately, which increases the signs of a possible excess of supply, or perhaps only weakened the demand for that particular mixture of crude oil. And now refiners expect Saudi Arabia to increase their raw prices for Asia, which really does not suggest an excess of delay, but a rather healthy demand for crude.
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In addition, the November-December extent for crude oil at the end of September stood at $ 1 per barrel, said Phil Flynn of Price Futures Group, as Citó Investing.com, noting that the development countered the predictions of analysts for an excess of oil that emerged before the end of the year.
Separately, Flynn called the current situation in the petroleum purgatory, writing “oil prices are locked in a commercial range similar to a purgatory where OPEC seems to want to keep prices in this range of pain, high enough to win money but low enough to squeeze the American lutita.”
“The OPEC production increase poster was quickly denied by the poster, but one wonders about the time of the OPEC leaks that seem to continue reaching the price levels that could, in theory, unleash the American shale,” added the analyst.
The market is not “seeing excess and is not yet evident in the physical market … it is exaggerated,” said Vanda Insights’ Vandana Hari to The National. “If China continues to buy for storage, and I think they will do it … I see it as a demand growth and a bullish sign,” Hari said too. The analyst pointed out the seasonal increase in the demand for fuel oil for the northern hemisphere as well as the heating season.
Russian’s recent additional edges on fuel exports have also counteracted the narrative of excess. Moscow said it would extend a prohibition of gasoline exports until the end of the year and stop diesel exports, as the viceprimer Minister Alexander Novak announced previously. The curbs are seen as the result of the attacks of Ukrainian drones against Russian refineries and, as such, an indication of a future hardening of the supply of fuel in global markets.
(Tagstotranslate) Petroleum prices