Low-income households will be hardest hit, according to an analysis in collaboration with the United Nations World Food Program (WFP), after crude oil prices rose to more than $114 a barrel earlier this year, along with higher shipping costs, insurance fees and delivery delays.
“Even with a fragile ceasefire in place, volatility remains high, and the Caribbean, which relies heavily on imported food, is quickly feeling the pressure.”, maintain the authors of the report.
At the same time, experts warn that there is a 61 percent chance of the El Niño climate phenomenon that will occur in mid-2026; Historically for the Caribbean region, El Niño has brought heat waves, droughts and crop failures to already struggling nations.
The crisis in summary:
- Fuel shock affects food prices: Soaring oil and shipping costs are driving up the price of imported food, electricity and transportation, squeezing household budgets across the Caribbean.
- Strong dependence on imports: The region relies heavily on food imports, making it especially vulnerable to global price increases and supply chain chaos.
- Drought fears increase: The UN climate agency, WMO, says there will be a 60 percent change in an El Niño climate event this year. A strong El Niño could cause severe droughts in countries such as Belize, Guyana, Suriname, Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago, threatening crops and water supplies.
- Food insecurity is already high: Prices have gone up 55 to 60 percent from 2018leaving many families struggling, with food insecurity still far above pre-pandemic levels.
- Consecutive disasters: Recurring climate disasters, including Hurricane Beryl in 2024 and Hurricane Melissa last October, have left households with little capacity to cope or withstand new shocks. This means that even small price increases or crop losses could push many households into crisis.
Warning signs
In Belize, authorities are preparing for drought, while farmers across the Caribbean region fear reduced harvests as rainfall declines and temperatures rise.
For low-income families, the impact could be devastating, as food and transportation account for a large portion of spending. This means that even modest price increases will hit hard and force many to cut back on meals, or switch to cheaper, less nutritious foods, or go into debt.
Small farmers and fishermen are also at risk, facing rising running costs alongside worsening weather conditions.
Experts say the next few months will be critical. Without swift action to stabilize markets, support incomes and protect food production, the region could fall into a deeper crisis.
Even if global conditions improve, the damage may persist, leaving the Caribbean trapped in a cycle of rising prices, climate crises and growing food insecurity.