XRP has gained 355% in 52 weeks, vastly outperforming Bitcoin and Ethereum since the 2024 US elections.
The global payments market is already fragmented and XRP will not dominate it anytime soon.
At $2.50, XRP appears overvalued and needs to correct towards pre-election levels.
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It is really difficult to find a reasonable market value for XRP (CRYPT: XRP). Simple web searches like “XRP fair value” will give you pages and pages of outlandish price targets.
Some speculators assume that XRP will dominate international payments very quickly and almost completely. Others appear to confuse XRP trading volume with free cash flows and other earnings metrics, offering “discounted cash flow” calculations based on unreasonable input values.
Either way, price targets typically reach thousands (or tens of thousands) of dollars. The mildest of these ultra-bullish calculations would unlock XRP returns of many thousands of percent, presumably very quickly.
If something sounds too good to be true, it usually is. In fact, I’m pretty convinced that XRP is a bit overrated at $2.50 per coin and a price correction is expected fairly soon.
Here’s why I’d rather sell XRP than buy it at the current price level.
On October 24, 2025, XRP gained 355% in 52 weeks. Last year’s election results caused this cryptocurrency to skyrocket, as the long-running Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) lawsuit was sure to end under a more crypto-friendly administration. With that dark cloud out of the way, XRP was projected to skyrocket as integrated international payment network RippleNet got the green light to operate in the United States.
Sure, other cryptocurrencies also rose with the election results, but big names like bitcoin (CRYPT: BTC) and Ethereum (CRYPT: ETH) could not keep up with XRP.
XRP price data by YCharts.
In fact, the lawsuit has been dismissed, but the Trump administration has yet to come up with a legal and regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. The Genius Act added some clarity for stablecoins, but the broader Clarity Act is stalled by the current government shutdown. If signed, the Clarity Act would clarify the roles of the SEC and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in setting and enforcing rules for trading Bitcoin, XRP, and other cryptocurrencies.
Furthermore, XRP was not included in the long-awaited Bitcoin Strategic Reserve. Part of last November’s price surge was based on assuming that inclusion, which would have made the US government an active buyer of XRP.
I’m excited as an adequate XRP reserve could result in XRP being used for high value government transactions. But that’s not what happened, and it’s time to let go of this expectation of boosting XRP.
Image source: Getty Images.
I think XRP has a bright future. RippleNet appears poised to take on a larger share of the $195 trillion cross-border payments market by 2024.
But you have to set reasonable expectations for this growth story.
Even if XRP ends up running the entire global money transfer market, there is a big difference between RippleNet’s transfers of value and profits. The currency is known for its very low transaction fees – fractions of a cent, even for very large transactions.
Only a small portion of the global payments market could make XRP a major player. The Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications (SWIFT) service is adopting digital payment technology. Other options include credit cards, digital wallets, Intelligent(OTC: WPLC.F)and PayPal(NASDAQ: PYPL). As you can see, the market is already fragmented and XRP probably won’t change that.
The Ripple organization, which manages XRP and the RippleNet service, is a private company with confidential finances. Until that changes, it’s impossible to say exactly how successful the payment service is or how much money it makes. This uncertainty alone should result in lower XRP prices as serious investors crave financial information.
So I would be a buyer of XRP again, if the coin gave back most of last November’s gains. At $2.50 per coin, I’m tempted to sell the coins I have. This is definitely not a good time to double XRP.
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Anders Bylund has positions in Bitcoin, Ethereum and XRP. The Motley Fool positions and recommends Bitcoin, Ethereum, PayPal, Wise Plc, and XRP. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: long $42.50 January 2027 calls on PayPal and short $75 December 2025 calls on PayPal. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Should I buy XRP (Ripple) as long as it costs less than $3? was originally published by The Motley Fool
