The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) today rose +0.54%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) rose +0.99% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) rose +0.78%. March E-mini S&P futures (ESH26) rose +0.58% and March E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQH26) rose +0.80%.
Stock indices are rising today and the Dow Jones Industrial Average has reached a new all-time high. Optimism about AI spending is boosting chipmakers and data storage companies. Additionally, energy companies are mobilizing today after President Trump said a team of US officials will “run” Venezuela after capturing Venezuelan President Maduro and that the US requires “full access” to the country, including its oil reserves. Additionally, mining stocks are rising as rising geopolitical risks in South America drive demand for precious metals as safe haven assets, with gold up more than 2% and silver up more than 5%.
Dovish comments Saturday from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson supported stock prices after she said she sees “a moderation in inflation, a stabilization of the labor market, and growth of about 2% this year. If all of that happens, then some modest additional adjustments to the funds rate would probably be appropriate later in the year.”
However, today’s comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari were slightly hawkish on Fed policy when he said US interest rates may be “close to neutral” for the economy.
The strength in European stocks today is providing support to US stock markets after the Euro Stoxx 50 hit a new all-time high.
The market’s focus this week will be on US economic news, including today’s December ISM Manufacturing Index, which is expected to rise +0.2 to 48.4. On Tuesday, the S&P Manufacturing PMI for December is expected to be unrevised and at 52.9. On Wednesday, the December ADP employment change is expected to increase by +48,000. Additionally, the December ISM Services Index is expected to fall -0.3 to 52.3. Additionally, JOLTS job openings are expected to increase by +9,000 to 7.679 million. Finally, on Wednesday, October factory orders are expected to decline -1.1% MoM. On Thursday, third quarter non-farm productivity is expected to increase +4.7% and unit labor costs are expected to increase +0.3%. Additionally, weekly initial jobless claims are expected to increase by +12,000 to 211,000. On Friday, December nonfarm payrolls are expected to increase by +59,000, and the December unemployment rate is expected to fall between -0.1 and 4.5%. Additionally, December average hourly earnings are expected to increase +0.3% MoM and +3.6% YoY. Additionally, housing starts in October are expected to increase 1.4% mom to 1.325 million, and building permits in October are expected to increase 1.1% mom to 1.350 million. Finally, the University of Michigan’s January Consumer Confidence Index is expected to rise 0.6 points to 53.5.
Markets are pricing in the odds of a -25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on January 27-28 at 16%.
Foreign stock markets are rising today. The Euro Stoxx 50 reached a new all-time high and rose +0.85%. China’s Shanghai Composite hit a 1.5-month high and closed up +1.38%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 rose to a two-month high and closed sharply up +2.97%.
Interest rates
March 10-year Treasury bonds (ZNH6) are up +4 ticks today. The 10-year Treasury yield is down -1.6 bps to 4.175%. March Treasuries are rising today on dovish comments from Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson, who said she believes the Fed will cut interest rates later this year if inflation moderates. Additionally, heightened global geopolitical risks boosted demand for Treasury bills as a safe haven after the United States invaded Venezuela and captured Venezuelan President Maduro.
The strength in stocks today is limiting the rise in Treasury bond prices. Additionally, comments from Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari undermined Treasuries when he said U.S. interest rates may be “close to neutral” for the economy.
European government bond yields are falling today. The 10-year German bond yield is down -1.8 bp to 2.882%. The 10-year UK bond yield is down -3.4 bps to 4.503%.
The swaps price in a 1% probability that the ECB will raise rates +25 bps at its next monetary policy meeting on February 5.
US Stock Engines
Chipmakers and data storage companies are rising today, supporting gains in the broader market. ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) and KLA Corp (KLAC) are up more than +5%, and ASML Holding NV (ASML) and Lam Research (LRCX) are up more than +4%. Additionally, Applied Materials (AMAT), ON Semiconductor (ON), Marvell Technology (MRVL), Microchip Technology (MCHP), Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), and NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) rose more than +3%. Additionally, Analog Devices (ADI), Intel (INTC), and Qualcomm (QCOM) rose more than 2%.
Energy producers and energy service providers are speaking out today after President Trump said a team of U.S. officials will “run” Venezuela and that the United States requires “full access” to the country, including its oil reserves. Valero Energy (VLO) is up more than +9% to lead gains in the S&P 500. Additionally, Halliburton (HAL) and SLB (SLB) are up more than +7%, and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Phillips 66 (PSX) are up more than +6%. Additionally, ConocoPhillips (COP) and Baker Hughes (BKR) rose more than +5%, and Chevron (CVX) rose more than +4% to lead the gains in the Dow Jones Industrials.
Mining stocks are rising today, with the price of gold up over +2%, copper up +3% and silver up over +5%. Barrick Mining (B), Newmont Mining (NEM), Freeport McMoRan (FCX), Hecla Mining (HL) and Coeur Mining (CDE) rose more than +2%.
Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are rising today with Bitcoin (^BTCUSD) rising more than +3% to a 4-week high. Coinbase Global (COIN) and Galaxy Digital Holdings (GLXY) rose more than +5%. Additionally, Strategy (MSTR) and Mara Holdings (MARA) are up more than +4%, and Riot Platforms (RIOT) is up more than +3%.
GH Research Plc (GHRS) is up more than +34% after it said the FDA lifted the clinical hold on its investigational new drug application for its drug GH001, moving the company toward the start of its global Phase 3 trial for treatment-resistant depression.
QXO Inc (QXO) is up more than 7% after it said Apollo Global and other investors agreed to invest $1.2 billion in the company through a new series of perpetual convertible preferred shares.
Mobileye Global (MBLY) is up more than +5% after Barclays upgraded the stock to overweight from equal weight with a $16 price target.
Estee Lauder (EL) is up over +3% after Raymond James upgraded the stock to a Strong Market Buy with a $130 price target.
Fortive Corp (FTV) is down more than -4% after Mizuho Securities twice downgraded its stock to Underperform from Outperform with a $51 price target.
Uber Technologies (UBER) is down more than -1% after Melius Research LLC downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a $73 price target.
Pentair Plc (PNR) is down more than -1% after TD Cowen downgraded the stock to sell from hold with a $90 price target.
Earnings Reports (5/1/2026)
None.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
