The S&P 500 Index ($SPX) (SPY) on Tuesday closed up +0.21%, the Dow Jones Industrials Index ($DOWI) (DIA) closed up +1.18% and the Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) closed down -0.31%. December E-mini S&P futures (ESZ25) rose +0.26% and December E-mini Nasdaq futures (NQZ25) fell -0.23%.
US stock indices closed mostly higher on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 hitting a one-week high and the Dow Jones Industrials hitting a 1.5-week high. Optimism that the US government shutdown is coming to an end is supporting stocks. After the Senate voted 60-40 on Monday to approve a temporary continuing resolution (CR) to fund the government, the House is expected to vote on the measure on Wednesday, and House Speaker Johnson said he hopes it will pass quickly. If passed, the bill will go to President Trump, who said he will sign it into law. Trading activity may be below average on Tuesday as cash trading of Treasury bonds was closed for the Veterans Day holiday.
The Nasdaq 100 came under pressure Tuesday due to weakness in AI infrastructure stocks and semiconductor manufacturers. CoreWeave fell more than -16%, sending AI stock lower after it said a data center delay would negatively impact fourth-quarter earnings expectations. Additionally, Nvidia closed down more than -2% after SoftBank Group sold its entire stake in the company for $5.83 billion.
Also hurting stocks on Tuesday was a weekly report from ADP that showed U.S. private employers shed an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four weeks ending Oct. 25, 2025, suggesting the labor market has weakened. Additionally, the US October NFIB Small Business Optimism Index fell -0.6 to a six-month low of 98.2, weaker than expectations of 98.3.
On Sunday, a group of eight Senate Democrats broke with their party to vote with Republicans to advance a bill to reopen the government. The bill would provide full-year funding for some departments, fund other agencies through Jan. 30 and pay furloughed government workers. The bill will also resume withheld federal payments to states and localities and recall agency employees who were laid off during the shutdown.
Markets are pricing in a 67% chance of another -25bp rate cut at the next FOMC meeting on December 9-10.
The third-quarter corporate earnings season is almost over, as 456 of the S&P 500 companies have reported earnings results. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, 82% of reporting S&P 500 companies beat estimates, on track for the best quarter since 2021. Third-quarter earnings rose +14.6%, more than double expectations of +7.2% year-over-year.
Foreign stock markets closed mixed on Tuesday. The Euro Stoxx 50 hit a 1.5-week high and closed up +1.08%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell from a 1.5-week high and closed down -0.39%. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 closed down -0.14%.
Interest rates
The December 10-year Treasury bond (ZNZ5) closed up +11 ticks on Tuesday. The cash Treasury bond market was closed Tuesday for the Veterans Day holiday. Treasuries rose on Tuesday after an ADP report showed that U.S. private sector employers shed more jobs than they created in the four weeks ending Oct. 25, a dovish factor for Federal Reserve policy.
Gains in Treasuries were limited amid progress toward ending the U.S. government shutdown. The Senate approved a temporary CR on Monday and the House will vote on the measure on Wednesday, which is expected to be approved and sent to President Trump, who said he will sign the bill.
European government bond yields fell on Tuesday. The 10-year German bond yield fell -1.0 bp to 2.658%. The 10-year UK bond yield fell to a two-week low of 4.374% and ended down -7.4 bps at 4.387%.
German ZEW survey economic growth expectations for November unexpectedly fell -0.8 to 38.5, versus expectations for an increase to 41.0.
Elderson, a member of the ECB Executive Board, said the ECB’s current level of interest rates “is appropriate, but we will continue to rely on data and decide on rates meeting by meeting.”
Kocher, a member of the ECB Governing Council, said: “The ECB is in a good position on interest rate policy and the expectation is that not much else will happen in the coming months.”
UK September employment change unexpectedly fell -22,000, less than expectations for a rise of +5,000 and the biggest drop in 1.5 years. The ILO unemployment rate in September rose +0.2 to a 4.5-year high of 5.0%, showing a weaker labor market than expectations of 4.9%.
The swaps price in a 3% chance that the ECB will cut rates by -25 bps at its next policy meeting on December 18.
US Stock Engines
Shares of recently beaten-down pharmaceutical manufacturers and health insurance companies rebounded on Tuesday, helping support gains in the broader market. Viatris (VRTS) closed with a gain of more than +10% to lead gains in the S&P 500. Additionally, Moderna (MRNA) closed with a gain of more than +6% and Merck & Co (MRK) closed with a gain of more than +4% to lead gains in the Dow Jones Industrials. Additionally, Amgen (AMGN) and Pfizer (PFE) closed with gains of more than +4%, and Elevance Health (ELV), Gilead Sciences (GILD), Cigna Group (CI), Bristol-Myers Squibb (BMY), Centene (CNC), and Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN) closed with gains of more than +3%.
Surmodics Inc. (SRDX) closed up more than +49% after a federal court rejected a request by the FTC and some state regulators for a preliminary injunction blocking GTCR’s acquisition of the company.
RealReal (REAL) closed up more than +37% after raising its full-year revenue forecast to $687 million-$690 million from a previous forecast of $667 million-$674 million, stronger than the consensus of $675 million.
Paramount Skydance (PSKY) closed with a gain of more than +9% after announcing a further workforce reduction of 1,600 people and a goal to achieve at least $3 billion in cost savings.
Kodiak Sciences (KOD) closed up more than +6% after HC Wainwright & Co LLC upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $24 price target.
FedEx (FDX) closed up more than +5% after CFO Dietrich told investors at an industry conference that the company’s adjusted earnings in its fiscal second quarter will exceed the $4.05 per share generated last year.
Viasat Inc. (VSAT) closed up more than +3% after JPMorgan Chase upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a $50 price target.
Linde Plc (LIN) closed with a gain of more than +1% after UBS upgraded the stock to buy from neutral with a $500 price target.
Chip stocks fell on Tuesday, weighing on the Nasdaq 100. Micron Technology (MU), Marvell Technology (MRVL), and Lam Research (LRCX) closed with losses of more than -4%. Additionally, ARM Holdings Plc (ARM) closed down more than -3%, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Applied Materials (AMAT), and KLA Corp (KLAC) closed down more than -2%. Additionally, Broadcom (AVGO), ASML Holding NV (ASML), Intel (INTC), and Microchip Technology (MCHP) closed with losses of more than -1%.
CoreWeave Inc (CRWV) closed down more than -16% after saying a data center delay will negatively impact fourth-quarter expectations, prompting JPMorgan Chase to downgrade the stock to neutral from overweight.
Gemini Space Station Inc (GEMI) closed down more than -16% after reporting a third-quarter loss of -$6.67 per share, a wider loss than the consensus of -$3.24.
Rigetti Computing (RGTI) closed down more than -5% after reporting third-quarter revenue of $1.95 million, missing the consensus of $2.17 million.
Six Flags Entertainment Corp (FUN) closed down more than -5% after CFRA downgraded the stock to hold from buy and reduced its price target to $9 from $18.
Nvidia (NVDA) closed down more than -2% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after Softbank Group sold its entire stake in Nvidia shares for $5.83 billion.
Earnings Reports (11/12/2025)
Circle Internet Group Inc (CRCL), Cisco Systems Inc (CSCO), Flutter Entertainment PLC (FLUT), GLOBALFOUNDRIES Inc (GFS), Loar Holdings Inc (LOAR), On Holding AG (ONON), Tetra Tech Inc (TTEK), TransDigm Group Inc (TDG).
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no (directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are for informational purposes only. This article was originally published on Barchart.com
