March NY World Sugar #11 (SBH26) on Friday closed +0.07 ( +0.431%), and December London Ice White Sugar #5 (SWZ25) closed -1.20 (-0.26%).
Sugar prices were established on Friday. The sugar has the transmission support on Thursday, when Unica reported that the sugar content in the crushing of sugar and cane from southern Brazil decreased, indicating lower sugar production. The sugar content in the cane crushed in the first half of September in Brazil fell to 154.58 kilograms per ton (kg/ton) versus 160.07 kg/ton the previous year.
On Tuesday, New York sugar recovered at a closer height of 1.5 months (V25), and London sugar rose to a maximum of 2 weeks in signs of a stronger global demand, since Pakistan has made orders for a total of 320,000 TM of sugar for immediate delivery.
Last Tuesday, Ny Sugar registered a future closer to 4.25 years, and London Sugar registered a minimum of 4 years, since they extended their 7 -month bearish trend due to the prospects of abundant global sugar supplies. Last Tuesday, Stonex projected a global +2.8 mmt sugar surplus for next 2025/26 season, changing a deficit of -4.7 mmt in the 2024/25 season.
Higher sugar production in Brazil is bassist for prices. Unique on Thursday that the production of central-south sugar from Brazil in the first half of September increased by +15.7% and/AA 3,622 TM. In addition, the percentage of sugar cane crushed by sugar due to the sugar factories in Brazil in the second half of August increased to 53.49% of 47.74% at the same time last year. However, the accumulated exit of central-south sugar of 2025-26 until mid-September fell -0.1% and/AA 30,388 mmt.
The perspective for the greatest sugar exports in India is negative for sugar prices, since abundant monsoon rains can produce a spare tree crop. The Indian Department of Meteorology reported Tuesday that the cumulative rain of the monsoon in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal and the strongest monsoon in 5 years.
The perspective for greater sugar production in India is bassist for prices. On June 2, the Cooperative Sugar Factories of the Sugar Federation of India project that the production of 2025/26 sugar of India would rise +19% and/and 34.9 mmt, citing a larger planted cane surface. That would follow a decrease of -17.5% A/and in the production of sugar in India in 2024/25 to a minimum of 5 years of 26.2 mmt, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Another bearish factor for sugar was the recent statement of the sugar merchant sugar that India can divert 4 mmt of sugar to make ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to relieve the surplus of sugar in the country and can lead to the sugar factories of India to export up to 4 mmt of sugar, above the previous expectations of 2 mmt. India is the second largest sugar producer in the world.
The perspective for a greater production of sugar in Thailand is bassist for prices after the Thai Sugar Miller Corp project on Wednesday that the cultivation of sugar 2025/26 of Thailand will increase by +5% yya 10.5 mmt. On May 2, the Thailand office of the Board of Cane and Sugar reported that the production of 2024/25 sugar in Thailand increased +14% and/AA 10.00 mmt. Thailand is the third largest sugar producer in the world and the second largest sugar exporter.
On August 29, the Sugar International Organization (ISO) predicted a global sugar deficit for the 2025/26 season, the sixth consecutive year of sugar deficit. The ISO projects a global sugar deficit 2025/26 of -231,000 TM, improving a deficit of -4.88 mmt in 2024/25. The ISO also projects 2025/26 the global sugar production will increase by +3.3% and/AA 180.6 mmt, and the global sugar consumption 2025/26 will increase +0.3% Yya 180.8 mmt.
The expectations of abundant sugar supplies are bassist for prices. On June 30, the Basic Merchant Czrnikow projected a global 7.5 mmt sugar surplus for the 2025/26 season, the largest surplus in 8 years. On May 22, the USDA, in its biannual report, projected that the global sugar production 2025/26 would increase by +4.7% A/AA a record of 189,318 mmt, with global final sugar actions at 41,188 mmt, an increase of 7.5% and/a.
On August 19, Conab, the Brazilian government agency for government crops, reduced its 2025/26 production estimate at 3.1% to 44.5 mmt from a previous estimate of 45.9 mmt. In July, Conab reported that the production of sugar from Brazil 2024/25 fell into -3.4% A/AA 44,118 mmt, citing lower sugar cane yields due to drought and excessive heat.
The USDA, in its bi-annual report published on May 22, projected that the production of global sugar 2025/26 would rise +4.7% and/AA a record of 189,318 mmt and that the global consumption of human sugar 2025/26 would increase +1.4% and/already a record of 177,921 mmt. The USDA also predicted that the end of the end of global sugar 2025/26 would rise +7.5% and/AA 41.188 mmt. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the USDA predicted that the production of sugar 2025/26 of Brazil would increase +2.3% and/AA a record of 44.7 mmt fas predicted that the production of sugar 2025/26 of India would increase +25% and/already 35.3 mmt due to the rains of favorable monsors and the increase of sugar sugar. FAS predicted that the production of sugar 2025/26 of Thailand will rise +2% and/already 10.3 mmt.
On the date of publication, Rich Asplund had no positions (directly or indirectly) in any of the values ​​mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article are only for informative purposes. This article was originally published at Barchart.com
