World sugar #11 for March in New York (SBH26) today was down -0.44 (-2.80%), and white sugar ICE #5 for December in London (SWZ25) was down -13.10 (-2.93%).
Sugar prices are selling off today, with NY Sugar matching last month’s closest 4.5-year futures low and London sugar posting a new 4.25-year low. The prospects for a strong global sugar supply are weighing on prices. Last Monday, BMI Group projected a 2025/26 global sugar surplus of 10.5 MMT, and last Tuesday, Covrig Analytics projected a 2025/25 global sugar surplus of 4.1 MMT.
Sugar prices have been under pressure for the past seven months due to signs of increased sugar production in Brazil. Unica reported last Thursday that sugar production in Central-South Brazil in the second half of September increased +10.8% year-on-year to 3,137 MT. Furthermore, the percentage of sugar cane crushed by Brazil’s sugar mills in the second half of September increased to 51.17% from 47.73% in the same period last year. Additionally, the 2025-26 South-Central cumulative sugar production through September increased +0.8% YoY to 33.524 MMT.
Prospects for increased sugar exports from India are negative for sugar prices as abundant monsoon rains may produce a bumper sugar crop. On September 30, the India Meteorological Department reported that the accumulated monsoon rainfall in India as of September 30 was 937.2 mm, 8% above normal, marking the strongest monsoon in five years. On June 2, the National Federation of Indian Cooperative Sugar Factories projected that India’s sugar production in 2025/26 would rise +19% year-on-year to 34.9 MMT, citing higher cane planted area. This would follow a -17.5% year-on-year decline in India’s sugar production in 2024/25 to a five-year low of 26.2 MMT, according to the Indian Sugar Mills Association (ISMA).
Another bearish factor for sugar was sugar trader Sucden’s recent claim that India could divert 4 million tonnes of sugar to produce ethanol in 2025/26, which is not enough to alleviate the country’s sugar surplus and may prompt Indian sugar mills to export up to 4 million tonnes of sugar, up from earlier expectations of 2 million tonnes. India is the second largest sugar producer in the world.
Prospects for higher sugar production in Thailand are bearish for prices after Thai Sugar Miller Corp projected on October 1 that Thailand’s 2025/26 sugar crop will increase +5% year-on-year to 10.5 MMT. On May 2, the Office of the Thai Cane and Sugar Board reported that Thailand’s sugar production in 2024/25 increased +14% year-on-year to 10.00 MMT. Thailand is the world’s third largest sugar producer and second largest sugar exporter.