If you got knocked out in Week 6, you probably tried too hard.
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Similar to when “Mikey” sees that “Sue” is generating heat in the movie. swingers, despite living in a nice neighborhood in Los Angeles: there’s no need to stir up trouble on Survivor, like in her old neighborhood in New York in the ’90s, “trouble finds you.”
Who’s left?
For the first five weeks, the options were plentiful and there were infinite potential paths. Contest sizes can vary, from the 18,718 entries in the Circa Survivor contest in Las Vegas, to the variety of contestants you compete against in a Yahoo Football Survival League, but no matter the size, the percentage of original contestants left is likely the same.
The Week 5 massacre simplifies things a bit going forward, as those who survived probably did so because they used the Colts or Lions in Week 5.
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Going forward, we will put together a plan for both the “Colts people” and the “Lions people” in an effort to go the distance. While that’s pretty straightforward, it’s hard to know which teams have been used ahead of Week 5, so we’ll provide a trio of options for each path.
Week 7 Money Lines
What are the chances that one team wins and you advance? The betting market provides the answer each week with the money line, which we can convert into an implied win probability (IWP).
Moneyline and implied winning percentage for each favorite in Week 7
(Matt Russell)
*We have also adjusted for the retention of approximately 2.4% on sports betting.
Market power ratings
It’s not as simple as choosing the team most likely to win, because once you use that team, you can’t use it again. What’s simple is that if you’re going to make it through the 18-week season, then you’ll need to use 18 teams. That means, at some point, you’ll be relying on the 18th best team in the NFL. It’s a disconcerting thought.
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Here is a list of the current top 18 teams on the betting market and an estimate of their value down to the point of spread:
Picking the team most likely to win each week, or the highest team available on this list above, means you’re giving up the opportunity to use them again later, and while technically every week is the same, trusting a team in Week 7 is a lot different than doing so sometime in December.
The best options of week 7
The path of the “Colts people”
1. Chiefs (84.5%) over Raiders
With a pick’em game against the Chargers, the Colts aren’t an option this week, so it doesn’t hurt to burn them in Week 6 (and if you used them in Week 7, you survived with quite a bit of sweat). Meanwhile, if the strategy for using the Chiefs was to wait for their offense to be at full strength, the idea was always to wait for Rashee Rice’s return in Week 7.
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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 16 in Titans (KC -11)
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Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5)
Despite their modest 3-3 record, the Chiefs are approaching “fine with using them against anyone” territory, but their schedule has a number of tough spots with two games against the Broncos, plus the Colts, Texans and matchups with quarterbacks Jayden Daniels, Josh Allen, Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.
2. Patriots (74.9%) over Titans
Buoyed by their first win of the season, the Titans came to Las Vegas and racked up 225 total yards, easily losing to a Raiders offense that racked up 226. If you’re worried about the hit a team tends to take in the game after they fire their head coach, that narrative clashes with Mike Vrabel’s return to Nashville.
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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 8 against Browns (NE -7)
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Week 11 against Jets (NE -9.5)
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Week 13 against Giants (NE -5)
There are two equal or better options for the Patriots in the coming weeks, both at home. A third straight road game is a tough scheduling spot for the Pats, so even waiting until they return home next week is probably a better strategic play.
3. Lions (69.0%) over Buccaneers
If those who survived with the Colts in Week 5 want to join those who have used the Lions, the situation of the Lions returning home after a loss in Kansas City is favorable, against the still badly beaten Buccaneers, as they should be assured for a victory before their bye week. Meanwhile, at 5-1, Tampa can take a very excusable loss here and still feel like they’re off to a successful start to the season.
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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 9 against Vikings (DET -6.5)
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Week 12 against Giants (DET -7.5)
We’ve had Week 12 locked in for the Lions for a while now, despite the Giants’ mini resurgence with Jaxson Dart. We’ll probably take a chance on Detroit in that case instead of here.
“People of lions”
1. Chiefs (84.5%) over Raiders
With Detroit as the seventh-most likely team to win this week, those who took the Lions in Week 5 aren’t envious of those who have them available as they go up against the MVP of the first third of the season, Baker Mayfield, and probably feel like there’s nothing lost by already burning them. We’ll see how lucky they feel in Week 12.
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According to Circa Sports’ Team Availability Matrix, 94.7% have the Chiefs available to use, so I expect more than half of the remaining participants to use Kansas City (always a smaller number than most expect), given that they are 10% more likely to win this week than anyone else.
What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 16 in Titans (KC -11)
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Week 18 at Raiders (KC -8.5)
That the Chiefs are 3-3 at least suggests they’ll have to try during the notoriously sketchy Week 18. However, saving the best team in the betting market until the end is a level of chutzpah we can respect, but not advise.
2. Patriots (74.9%) over Titans
With road wins over the Bills and Saints, the Patriots have cracked the top 18, the standard we look for in order to recommend a team. Of course, the fact that it took those two results to confirm that they are even a league-average team in the NFL should raise some concern about how solid that status is.
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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 8 against Browns (NE -7)
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Week 11 against Jets (NE -9.5)
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Week 13 against Giants (NE -5)
Thursday night games are notoriously risky. After all, the biggest losers have won on TNF the last two weeks. However, in Week 11, the best options on Sunday are the Steelers over the Bengals and the Falcons over the Panthers. We’ll see how Joe Flacco does against the Steelers in Cincinnati this week, but Atlanta already lost 30-0 to the suddenly 3-3 Panthers.
3. Broncos (75.4%) over Giants
How does anyone still have the Broncos available?!? Circa’s availability matrix says 43.6% still do, even though Denver has already played the Titans, the Burrow-less Bengals and the Jets this season. The Giants appear to have gotten a boost from rookies Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, but the big concern is the return of star left tackle Andrew Thomas.
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What you’re giving up (projected point spread):
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Week 10 against Raiders (DEN -8)
Although it is a Thursday night game in Week 10, there are still one more place to use the Broncos in the future. Even in last week’s win, the Raiders don’t look good at all, making them a much more attractive fade as part of our number one pick this week.
The Bills go to Miami in Week 10, which is the best option on a slate in which the Saints play the Panthers and the Browns play the Jets.
If you’ve saved the Broncos so far, you might as well do it one more time and take the Chiefs, since there’s no need to try to be “the guy in the R-rated movie we’re not so sure about.” Which is what those trying to think outside the box with the Packers, Steelers or Bears will try to be this week.
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You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russellin THE WINDOW.