Quick reading
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MicroStrategy (MSTR) owns 713,502 bitcoins worth $54.26 billion and reported a net loss of $12.44 billion in the fourth quarter of 2025 due to unrealized digital asset losses, with the stock down 60% over the past year to $159.89. Polymarket traders assign a 79% probability that MicroStrategy will sell some Bitcoin by the end of 2026.
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Bitcoin’s current price action reflects the 2022 bearish flag pattern that preceded a deeper 62% capitulation, and a drop below the 200-day moving average could take Bitcoin to $40,000 or lower, forcing MicroStrategy to choose between margin pressure and discretionary asset sales.
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Ran Neuner sat down with Scott Melker on The wolf of all the streets podcast and presented a chart pattern that should give every Bitcoin bull pause. The title of the episode says it clearly: “Bitcoin at $40,000? Saylor’s big bet is breaking down.” The thesis revolves around a single uncomfortable observation about 2022 that most investors have forgotten: the second leg down was significantly worse than the first.
The Pattern 2022, Step by Step
Neuner walked through the structure: “If you look back at the year 2022, you had the dip, you had the bear flag, you had the dip, you had a bear flag again, and then you really had the really big dip.”
The numbers behind that sequence matter. The first drop in 2022 was approximately 43%. The second drop, which occurred after Bitcoin retested the bearish flag and marked the 200-day moving average, was about 62%. That’s the part that bulls tend to overlook. The pattern did not sell out on the first download. The Luna/Terra event in May set the stage, and FTX’s collapse in November caused a deeper wound.
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The reflected image of today
Neuner’s formulation of the current chart was direct: “Now let’s go back to today’s chart. And unfortunately, it looks like a mirror image.” Bitcoin just kissed the 200-day moving average and fell back into a bearish flag, the same setup that preceded the broader capitulation of 2022. As he said: “If it looks like a duck, walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then you have to assume it’s probably a duck.”
Price action supports structural concern. Bitcoin is trading at $76,600.87 as of May 24, 2026, down 12% year-to-date and down 29% over the past year from a starting point of $107,794.01. Polymarket’s $75,000 market drop for May has already resolved YES, confirming that the bearish test has begun.