The S&P 500 index ($ SPX) (SPy) on Monday closed with a +0.36%rise, the Dow Jones Industrials ($ Dowi) (Dow) (day) closed with a decrease of -0.14%and the Nasdaq 100 index ($ Iuxx) (QQQ) closed with a 0.78% +0.78%rise. The futures of the E-Mini S&P December (ESZ25) rose a +0.37% and the futures of the December e-mini nasdaq (NQZ25) rose +0.75%.
Stock indices rose mainly on Monday, and Nasdaq 100 registered a new historical maximum. Advanced Micro Devices rose more than 23% to lead chips manufacturers after their agreement with OpenAi on AI infrastructure, valued in tens of billions of dollars, added fuel to the frenzy of AI. The recent optimism that growth in the AI sector and artificial intelligence spending will translate into corporate gains is an important upward factor for actions. The actions are also backed by the hopes that a resistant American economy and additional flexibility of the Federal Reserve continue to support the economy.
The greatest yields of the bonds on Monday limited the profits of the shares, and the performance of the 10 -year Treasury bonds rose +4 bp to 4.16%. In addition, Verizon Communications fell more than -5%, which affected Dow Jones Industrials. In addition, the closing of the US government has already entered its second week, weighing on market confidence and delaying key economic reports.
The closure of the government means delays in the publication of government reports, including the monthly payroll report last Friday. A prolonged closure could also delay government inflation data, whose publication is scheduled for October 15. The White House has warned that if the government’s closure is prolonged, it would cause generalized dismissals of employees in government programs that are not aligned with the priorities of President Trump. Bloomberg Economics estimates that 640,000 federal workers will be fired during a closure, which would expand unemployment applications and raise the unemployment rate to 4.7%.
The current closure of the US government, the expectations of greater flexibility of Fed and political uncertainty in France and Japan are also leading investors to seek assets such as gold and Bitcoin. French Prime Minister Lecornu resigned after President Macron appointed a new cabinet, which generated uncertainty about the second largest economy in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, Sanae Takaichi, supporter of a flexible fiscal and monetary policy, won Saturday’s elections to become the new leader of the PLD ruling party and potential prime minister of Japan. Gold and Bitcoin reached new historical maximums on Monday, adding impulse to the so -called “degradation trade” as investors flee from fiduciary currencies.
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This week market attention will focus on any novelty related to tariffs, trade or attempts of legislators to end the current closure of the United States government. On Wednesday the minutes of the FOMC meeting of September 16 and 17 will be published. On Thursday, the president of the FED, Powell, will pronounce a few words of welcome at a conference of community banks of the Fed. On Friday, the October consumer index of the University of Michigan falls –1,1 to 54.0.
The increasing expectations of corporate profits are a bullish backdrop for actions. According to Bloomberg Intelligence, more than 22% of the companies of the S&P 500 provided guidance for their profits of the third quarter that is expected to exceed the expectations of the analysts, the highest in a year. However, the benefits of the third quarter are expected to have increased +7.2%, the lowest increase in two years. In addition, the third quarter sales growth is expected to slow down to 5.9% from 6.4% of the second quarter.
The markets are discounting a 95% probability that there is a cut of types of -25 bp at the next FOMC meeting of October 28 and 29.
Foreign stock markets today are mixed. The Stoxx 50 euro has dropped by -0.35%. The Shanghai Composite of China did not quote and is closed for the one week of the New Year lunar. Japan’s Nikkei Stock 225 reached a historical maximum and closed with a +4.75%rise.
Interest rates
Treasury bonds at 10 years in December (ZNZ5) closed on Monday with a fall of -9 ticks. The 10 -year treasure bond yield increased +4.5 bp to 4,164%. The prices of the treasure bonds were under pressure on Monday due to the strength of the actions. In addition, the offer pressures are undermining the prices of treasure bonds, since the treasure will auction $ 119,000 million in treasure bonds and notes this week, starting with Tuesday’s auction of 58,000 million dollars in treasure bonds at 3 years. Losses in Treasury bonds are limited, since a prolonged closure of the US government could weaken the economy, a support factor for treasure bonds.
The yields of European government bonds rose on Monday. The 10 -year German bonus performance rose +2.1 bp to 2,719%. The 10 -year -old British bonus rose up to a maximum of 4,751% and ended +4.6 bp to 4,736%.
August retail sales in the Eurozone increased a +0.1% intermensual, just according to expectations.
The Trust Index of the Sentix investors of the October Eurozone rose +3,8 to -5.4, stronger than the expectations of -7.7.
The president of the ECB, Lagarde, said: “Inflation in the Eurozone remains close to our goal of 2%” and hopes that the economy will recover in 2026.
Swaps discount a 1% probability that the ECB reduces the types of -25 bp at its next monetary policy meeting on October 30.
US shares. UU.
Advanced Micro De Devices (AMD) closed with an increase of more than +23 % to lead the actions of chips and infrastructure manufacturers of upward and win in the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100 after the company signed an agreement with Openai to implement 6 gigawatts of GPU AMD for several years and give Openai a guarantee by up to 160 million up to 160 million of AMD actions. In addition, Super Micro Computer (SMCI) closed with an increase of more than +5%, and Palantir Technologies (PLT), Kla Corp (KLAC), ARM Holdings PLC (ARM) and Applied Materials (Amat) closed with an increase of more than +3%. In addition, Lam Research (LRCX) and Marvell Technology (MRVL) rose more than +2%.
The actions exposed to the cryptocurrencies rose on Monday after the price of Bitcoin rose more than one +2% to a historical maximum of more than $ 126,000. Global Coinbase (Coin), Galaxy Digital (GLXY), Mara Holdings (Mara), Strategy (Mstr) and Riot Platforms (Riot) closed with profits of more than +1%.
Critical Metals Corp (CRML) closed with an increase of more than +46% after Reuters reported that the Trump administration has discussed acquiring a participation in the company.
Eating (CMA) closed with an increase of more than +13% after Fifth Third Bancorp agreed to buy the company for about $ 10.900 million in shares.
Firefly Aerospace (Fly) closed with a gain of more than +6% after saying that it had signed a definitive agreement to acquire SCITEC for around 855 million dollars in cash and shares.
Salesforce (CRM) closed with a gain of more than +2 % and led the profits in the Dow Jones Industrials after the company was mentioned in an annual event of Chatgpt developers on companies whose applications are being incorporated into Chatgpt.
Intellia Therapeutics (NTLA) closed with an increase of more than +2 % after Citizens JMP Securities LLC improved the action until reaching a higher than the market, with an objective price of $ 33.
Micron Technology (MU) closed with an increase of more than +1 % after Morgan Stanley raised the action to be raised from the same weighting with an objective price of 220 dollars.
APPLOVIN (APP) closed with a fall of more than -14% to lead the losers in S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 in a report that stated that the SEC was investigating the company’s data collection practices.
Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF) closed with a fall of more than -7% after JPMorgan Chase reduced the qualification of her actions from raised to neutral.
Verizon Communications (VZ) closed with a fall of more than -5% to lead the losers in the Dow Jones Industrials after announcing that Dan Schulman will replace Hans Vestberg as CEO, with immediate effect.
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