It goes around and around.
The jobs are great. Eight power conference concerts are open; four of them are considered blue blood championship type programs in LSU, Florida, Auburn and Penn State.
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The names (at least some of them) are great. Lane Kiffin, apparently the most coveted of all. Jon Sumrall, the popular Tulane up-and-comer. Jeff Brohm, the offensive genius at Louisville. Eli Drinkwitz, the man who has made Missouri a consistent winner. Clark Lea and Brent Key, who have led programs like Vanderbilt and Georgia Tech to playoff contention. There’s also Jedd Fisch in Washington, as well as a host of coaches from non-power leagues: Alex Golesh (USF), Bob Chesney (JMU) and Ryan Silverfield (Memphis).
Where will they all land?
The puzzle begins to take shape. The pieces are aligning.
As the final weekend of the regular season approaches, a flurry of activity over the past two weeks (midseason interviews, broken promises, extended deadlines) is leading to this final push this week. While many searches are coming to an end, others are just beginning as administrators anticipate their coaches will leave.
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Some coaches are signing secret memorandums of understanding (can they keep it a secret?). There are promises of millions in cash over the roster cap (although that’s not actually allowed!). Players hope to follow their coaches to other schools. Members of the recruiting staff are focusing their attention on the prospects they might land when their coach takes on School A or School B. Extensions for many coaches lay on their desk, unsigned, as they remain undecided.
(Jason Clark via Getty Images)
Everything is accelerated compared to previous years (Exhibit A: Oklahoma State’s hiring of North Texas coach Eric Morris on Tuesday).
For many others, decision day looms this weekend.
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The Kiffin Domino
For one coach, Kiffin, the biggest domino of all, his own school publicly set a deadline to make a decision: Saturday.
A decision from Kiffin, or Ole Miss administrators, is expected no later than Saturday afternoon, a day after the program plays Mississippi State in the annual Egg Bowl. There was no ultimatum to Kiffin from the school last week despite those reports. They just wanted clarity. After a meeting last Friday between Kiffin, AD Keith Carter and Chancellor Glenn Boyce, clarity came: An announcement, Carter released in a statement, will come Saturday, a public deadline for the coach himself.
There appears to be an ultimatum this week: sign a lucrative extension with the program or leave immediately for another job. If he decides to leave, Kiffin is not expected to coach in the playoffs, a decision school officials have reached in recent weeks (not a surprise given Kiffin’s actions to this point).
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Kiffin represents the biggest domino in what is expected to be a historically busy training cycle.
While the decision was made to involve three places (Ole Miss, LSU and Florida), signs continue to point toward one of those destinations.
Florida officials have begun looking at other candidates and Ole Miss administrators have begun looking at potential replacement coaches, two signs of Kiffin’s possible intent. In Baton Rouge, things are mostly quiet as the program prepares a multimillion-dollar offer for the coach.
If or when Kiffin leaves, the dominoes will really start to fall.
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Summary draw
Sumrall, 43 and 41-11 in four seasons as head coach, has a connection to both Auburn and Ole Miss. He is from Alabama and his wife graduated from Auburn. He coached Ole Miss for one season in 2018 and still has deep ties to Oxford.
Maybe there is a third school here too? If Kiffin isn’t Florida’s man, maybe Sumrall is.
Sumrall’s team has the opportunity, with a victory over Charlotte (1-10), to host the AFC championship game. Wherever Sumrall lands in the SEC (Ole Miss, Auburn or Florida) he will likely want and be allowed to coach the title game and even the CFP if the Green Wave takes the field.
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Oklahoma State allows Morris to do the same in North Texas if the Mean Green advances to play in the American title game: win it and advance to the playoffs.
Expect to see more of that in the future: non-power league coaches hired before their regular season ends and they are allowed to complete their postseason. The college football calendar (signing date in December and only one portal in January) is speeding up the recruiting cycle.
But back to Sumrall. If all three SEC programs seriously court him, what will he choose? And where do the other two programs that don’t get their commitment go?
Well, that can lead to many more dominoes falling.
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the shallow pool
A few weeks ago, when jobs opened up for blue blood coaches, one administrator uttered this statement: “There are not enough quality coaches to fill the number of quality jobs.”
This is not a slight to the many very capable trainers available right now. There are many beyond Kiffin and Sumrall whom Auburn, Penn State and Florida have formally interviewed, plan to interview or have at least considered the possibility of. These include Brohm, Drinkwitz, Lea, Key, Golesh and Chesney.
For the most part, everyone fishes in the same pond. Speaking of which, Fisch in Washington (apologies for the pun) is a former Florida player (but he has a buyout worth at least $10 million). There are other options besides those mentioned above. Like the interim at Penn State, Terry Smith, and the interim at Auburn, DJ Durkin. While Smith doesn’t seem like a serious candidate for the full-time job, he has the support of many players and alumni.
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Durkin is a serious candidate for the full-time job at Auburn, something athletic director John Cohen has expressed publicly, and a win over Alabama in the Iron Bowl could lead to his promotion, many in the program believe.
The rest
Arkansas’ coaching search may be the fastest-paced of the current vacancies.
The Hogs have interviewed more than 20 coaches, but a small handful survived to the end, most notably Golesh and Silverfield, according to those with knowledge of the search. UCLA is also on the way, specifically with a high level of interest in Chesney, the James Madison coach who is 130-51 at four different schools at three different levels of football.
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It will be fascinating to watch the filling of potential vacancies in the United States (Tulane, USF, Memphis, North Texas).
Former power league coaches such as Neal Brown and Billy Napier are expected to be in the mix. Maybe Pat Fitzgerald and Jimbo Fisher will see it too. There’s Toledo coach Jason Candle, who won 80 games in 11 seasons at the school, and Charles Huff, who at Southern Miss is trying to lead a second different team to the Sun Belt championship game in consecutive years.
Buckle up for a ride through the carousel like we’ve never seen before.