los angeles — How many Democrats are too many?
In the California governor’s race, so many Democratic candidates have piled into the fray that party insiders fear a historic catastrophe is on the horizon. It has become mathematically possible for Democrats to split their votes so dramatically that two Republicans advance from the June primary to the general election.
“It’s a parlor game in Sacramento now, could this happen?” Democratic consultant Paul Mitchell said.
The uncertainty of the outcome stems from the unpredictability of the state.” Top two “The primary system. All candidates appear on one ballot, but only the two front-runners advance to the general election in November, regardless of party. It’s the first time since voters approved this system more than a decade ago that there’s been a governor’s race without a clear nominee, helping to fuel a ‘why not me?'” mentality among a large number of Democrats flocking to the contest.
“There is a very real possibility that there will be only Republicans in the November election,” the campaign of former U.S. Rep. Katie Porter, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, warned at a recent fundraiser.
Although this is still a long way off, it is difficult to underestimate the political shock that would come with two Republicans at the top of the midterm ballot in California. The state is known as a Democratic stronghold, and a GOP candidate has not won a statewide election in two decades. It will also have implications for election races, including congressional battlegrounds that could determine control of the US House of Representatives.
Why so many candidates? The governor’s office in California has always had a magnetic pull, one of the most powerful political platforms in the country. The state – in itself – ranks as the fourth largest economy in the world. It is the country’s largest agricultural producer and is home to Silicon Valley and Hollywood. The state budget has roughly $350 billion in annual spending, an amount roughly equivalent to Netflix’s market capitalization.
With Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom barred by law from running for a third term, it is the most open gubernatorial contest in a generation.
Dozens of people have filed papers to run, from college student to billionaire. Among them are at least nine Democrats with the name recognition and fundraising tools to compete seriously.
This list includes current and former members of Congress — Porter, Rep. Eric Swalwell, and Xavier Becerra, who later served as the Biden administration’s top health official; former State Comptroller Betty Yee and Superintendent of Schools Tony Thurmond; billionaire Tom Steyer; San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan; former Los Angeles Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa; and Ian Calderon, former state Assembly majority leader.
With Democrats occupying much of the same ideological arena, the candidates are highlighting other signs of breaking away from the group. For example, Swalwell campaigned partly on his role as House manager in Trump’s 2021 impeachment trial. Mahan, the newest candidate in the race, has been a frequent critic of Newsom on crime and homelessness. Steyer is among Mahan’s biggest critics, saying he is too biased by tech interests.
Some Democrats hope to see the field narrow on their own.
Democratic strategist Drexel Hurd II, former executive director of the Los Angeles County Democratic Party, said it would be better for “lower class people to drop out of school.” “You’re looking at people who will never break through.”
Mitchell said he used available polling data to run a series of simulations to assess the likelihood of a GOP double-breakthrough, and found that it was possible, although with long odds. The Republican Party’s leading candidates are Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco And conservative commentator Steve HiltonBoth are supporters of President Donald Trump.
California is one of the most solidly Democratic states in the country. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans about 2 to 1 statewide, Democrats have held every statewide office since 2010, and Republicans have been reduced to helpless bystanders in the Legislature.
In the primaries, Democrats are expected to share approximately 60% of the vote, compared to 40% for Republicans. This calculus becomes difficult for Democrats if the party has a long list of credible candidates in the race, diminishing their share of the vote.
“It’s a small possibility, but it would be a huge, huge deal,” Mitchell said. The dilemma for Democrats is: “There’s no one who’s going to come along and tell these underclassmen candidates that they can’t run.”
For their part, Republicans are also concerned about the difficult calculations. Hilton called on Bianco to withdraw, hoping that Republicans would unite to advance one candidate to the November election.
“We cannot risk splitting the Republican vote and letting the Democrats in,” Hilton said in a recent debate.
The race shows some similarity to the rapidly developing 2028 Democratic presidential race, with a large number of candidates gathering to compete for an open seat. Democrats are still regrouping after the national party’s crushing defeat in 2024, and candidates in both races are testing messages they hope will motivate voters in the midterms and beyond.
With Republicans controlling Congress and the White House and many Americans pessimistic about the future, the abundance of candidates is a sign of energy and frustration within the party, said Democratic consultant Antjuan Seawright.
What the two races have in common: “We have to learn how to focus on the expansion game and strengthen our alliance,” Seawright said.