Washington– In 2011, President Barack Obama declared that it was time for America to leave behind the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and “turn” toward Asia to counter the rise of China. Fifteen years later, the United States still finds itself static In the war in the Middle East It has withdrawn its military assets from the Asia-Pacific region as part of its effort to eliminate the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
The demands of the Iran war also prompted President Donald Trump to do so Delay of several weeks And his upcoming trip to China, deepening fears that the United States will be distracted once again at the expense of its strategic interests in Asia, as Beijing seeks to displace the United States from its position as a regional leader.
Skeptics of US involvement in the Middle East say the war is preventing Trump from adequately preparing for his summit with Chinese leader Xi Jinping next month, when economic interests are at stake, and warn that a failure to focus on Asia and maintain deterrence could lead to further instability, if China believes it is time to destroy it. Seizure of the autonomous island of Taiwan.
“This is exactly the wrong time for the United States to walk away and get sucked into another intractable conflict in the Middle East,” said Danny Russell, a distinguished fellow at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Rebalancing toward Asia is closely related to American national interests, but it has been damaged by many bad decisions.
Others defend the president’s approach, saying the strong steps he is taking elsewhere, including at home Venezuela and Iran are working to confront China globally.
“Beijing is the primary sponsor of the enemies that President Trump is dealing with serially, and it would be wise to do so serially,” Matt Pottinger, who served as deputy national security adviser in the first Trump administration, said in a recent podcast.
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte also said conflicts may not be limited to one theatre, suggesting China could call on its “junior partners” elsewhere to divert US attention if it moves against Taiwan.
“It probably won’t be limited, something in the Indo-Pacific to the Indo-Pacific,” Rutte said, speaking Thursday at the Ronald Reagan Institute in Washington. “It will be a multi-theater affair.”
Senator Jeanne Shaheen, the top Democrat on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, recently led a bipartisan group of senators to taiwan, Japan and South Korea, where they heard concerns about the impact of the war on energy costs and about the departure of US military assets, including missile defense systems from South Korea and a naval rapid reaction unit from Japan.
It sought to reassure them of the United States’ commitment to deter conflicts in Asia and support regional stability.
“Failure is not an option,” Shaheen told The Associated Press after his return from Asia. “We know that China has already said it intends to seize Taiwan by force if it needs to, and they are on an accelerated timetable. We also know that what happened in Europe, in the war in Ukraine, and in the Middle East affects those calculations.”
Kurt Campbell, who served as Deputy Secretary of State in the Biden administration, said he is concerned that the military capabilities that the United States has patiently accumulated in the Indo-Pacific region may not fully return even after the war with Iran ends.
The longer the conflict lasts, the more it will pull resources and focus away from Asia, said Zach Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute who studies US strategy in Asia. He added that future arms sales to the region would also be negatively affected.
“The United States has expended large numbers of munitions in the Middle East, and will have to maintain an increased troop presence there, some of which have been redirected from Asia,” Cooper said. “At the same time, Xi Jinping’s wisdom in preparing the ‘wartime’ economy by storing and adding alternative energy sources has proven beneficial.”
Shaheen said that the American defense industry will face difficulties in meeting the demand to replenish weapons stocks. “We are working on a number of strategies to improve this, but at this point the timelines for delivering the weapons are delayed,” she said.
The senator from New Hampshire said she is encouraged that Taiwan, Japan and South Korea are ramping up their defenses.
Obama’s strategic rebalancing towards Asia reflected his understanding that the United States must play an active role in the Pacific region in order to harness growth in the region and ensure continued American leadership in the face of rising Chinese influence.
Obama said in a speech before the Australian Parliament: “After a decade in which we fought two wars that cost us dearly in blood and treasure, the United States is turning our attention to the enormous potential of the Asia-Pacific region.” So make no mistake, the tide of war is receding, and America looks to the future that we must build.”
But this strategy suffered a setback when a proposed trade agreement known as the Trans-Pacific Partnership with key US regional partners failed to pass the US Senate. After Trump first took office in 2017, he withdrew the United States from the partnership and launched a tariff war with China.
His Democratic successor, Joe Biden, maintained Trump’s tariffs on China and tightened export controls on advanced technology, while strengthening regional alliances to confront China.
By the time Trump announced his National Security Strategy in late 2025, the US strategy in Asia had narrowed to military deterrence in the Taiwan Strait and the First Island Chain, a chain of US-allied islands off the coast of China that restricts its access to the western Pacific.
The National Security Document says it is in the economic interest of the United States to secure access to advanced chips, which are mainly sourced from Taiwan and are needed to power everything from computers to missiles, and to protect shipping lanes in the South China Sea.
“Hence, deterring conflict over Taiwan, by maintaining military superiority, is a priority,” the document says. “We will build an army capable of repelling aggression anywhere in the First Island Chain.”
The report says the Middle East should receive less attention: “As this administration eliminates or eases restrictive energy policies and increases US energy production, the historical reason America has focused on the Middle East will recede.”
Then came the Iran war.
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AP writer Stephen Groves contributed to this report.