Picture this: It’s 2013, the American Football Conference is having its best moment. The Denver Broncos and New England Patriots sit first and second in the AFC, destroying teams with explosive offenses and solid defensive corps. Both look ready to fight for the AFC title in January, and there’s a great vibe all around. High fives to everyone, and yes, there will be drinks with umbrellas at the Christmas party. It’s beach themed.
Until we get down to it, you might think that 2025 is just 2013 reincarnated, like a messy spin-off of Harry Potter: The Prisoner of Azkaban, in which Hermione uses the Time Turner exclusively to influence the results of NFL games; a magical Pete Rose world, if you will. But unfortunately for our imaginations, there are some dastardly details that the devil has decided to dwell in.
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First and foremost, like…significantly more important, is that since 2013, the NFL has reduced the number of first-round byes to one, meaning that 12 years ago both the Patriots and the Broncos could secure byes, meaning that each other’s odds of reaching the AFC championship game against each other were super high. Nowadays, there’s a bye for the single seed, which is inherently baked into parity with the playoffs, ensuring that even a 14-win second seed (which the Patriots or Broncos could easily become) could lose to a strange seventh seed… say, oh I don’t know, the Houston Texans and their Mass Destruction Defensive Line?
Another major difference from 2013 is that the quality of the quarterback is all over the place. I wouldn’t say it’s worse across the board, but New England and Denver are operating with a pair of sophomores, one of whom appears to be the next big thing (Drake Maye) and another who looks like he could possibly be one of the next big things (Bo Nix). But these aren’t Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, at least not yet.*
*and probably never. Let’s not get so far ahead on our skis that we somersault up the bunny hill.
But the triumphant reincarnation of 2013 is a symptom of a broader situation brewing between the NFL and this amorphous thing I previously called “parity.” Unlike most situations, explaining it is not complicated. Here I will do it in one sentence:
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Who do you think will win the Super Bowl?
Each year, there are usually a number of defensible answers to this question: Whatever bracket of 13-win teams looks good, overall the Kansas City Chiefs are a safe bet… the Ravens tend to choke, but they’ve always had a choice. Recently, the Detroit Lions have been the best overall roster in the league, and then we have reigning MVP Josh Allen and his superpowers? Whoever the featured team was surprised everyone, so the Indianapolis Colts, right? The defending champions are always a good backup, so the Philadelphia Eagles if all else fails. We should stay here, right?
Mistaken. We are not quite ready. We are the opposite of everything established. Our 13-win teams will be the young, hard-to-trust Patriots and Broncos. The bosses are I’m not going to make the playoffs, and the Ravens could do it, but they shouldn’t. The Lions and Bills probably will, but they’re out looking for their own divisions, leading to a disgusting reality known as Away playoff games. It’s all over for the Colts, and the Eagles stink, so what do we have left? The jaguars? The Texans? The damn AFC South?!
The real answer is the Los Angeles Rams, who have probably been the best team from top to bottom and back to the front this year, regardless of their record. They have a legitimately incredible offense with a quarterback you have to trust and wide receivers who terrify you. There are other hot options like the Seahawks with a scary defense, or you might like the Packers and Bears with their emerging quarterbacks and decent rosters of surrounding talent. You can always pick the Patriots or Broncos too. That is allowed.
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Great, I’ve explained to you all the picks I’d be good with for the Super Bowl this year and we’re left with… 9 teams (Patriots, Broncos, Packers, Bears, Bills, Lions, Seahawks, Texans, Rams). That is, for the mathematically minded, 64 percent of all available playoff teams. That, according to official definitions, is “parity.”
But, sneakily, it is not. It’s thinly veiled chaos disguised as competitive progress. By eliminating the second bye and adding another playoff team, the NFL has basically ensured that more teams can lose in the postseason, not necessarily that different teams win it all. In the five Super Bowls since the changes, the Chiefs have played in four of them, the Eagles in two and the 49ers, Rams and Buccaneers held the remaining three spots.
That’s not much representation, given that the 10 spots in five years have been filled by only five teams in total. But the NFL and other leagues like the NBA that introduce things like the Play-In tournament have data that tells them that parity is good for television revenue; it stimulates small markets, keeps them interested and keeps the product fresh. That is why they try to create parity, with changes in financial and competitive rules.
However, what we have in 2025 is a mess, where no one has a sense of the season in Week 15 and analysts have to throw their hands in the air and say “well, someone will win. I know that for sure.” Not bad; It’s actually quite exciting, but it’s not “parity” in any sense of the word. True parity is understandable, the teams that can win are numerous enough to rotate like a rotisserie chicken, slowly weaving in and out as the windows open and close. That’s the type of league I want to see.
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I actually think the six-team brackets and double bye made the league feel fair, if not necessarily balanced. The Patriots were the main beneficiaries of that system, as they didn’t need to scratch and bite for a seed every year, they would win their usual one-game game every year, and they would end up with a chance to go to the Super Bowl almost every year. It kept the league stable and understandable, and I wonder if that’s what we need right now. The ideal would be to have true parity, but uncontrolled madness is breaking out here.
The secret, however, is that you not able create parity. Parity has to find you, through quarterback and coach consistency and well-managed front offices. I don’t think the NFL can legislate a balanced league, and the reason for this chaos may be a combination of its rule changes and the quarterback-coach ecosystem that is in a state of major transition.
I believe we can reach parity soon, if the league develops a viable new balance of infrastructure it can rely on. But for now, we’re left with chaos, the kind that the old playoff structure effectively controlled. Nowadays, however, if you ask me who is going to win the Super Bowl… I have no less than 10 ideas for you.