Washington– the Supreme Court decision President Donald Trump’s rollback of sweeping tariffs has added a wrinkle to the already complicated relationship between the United States and China, as the two countries navigate shifting terrain to avoid an all-out trade war that would disrupt the global economy while it still lasts. Struggling for a position of power In negotiations.
Friday’s court ruling appears to strengthen China’s hand, but analysts expect Beijing to be cautious in exploiting the advantage, knowing that Trump has other ways to impose taxes. Both sides also want to preserve it A fragile trade truce And stabilize relations before Trump A highly anticipated trip to Beijing.
“This will give China a morale boost in its negotiations with the Trump team before the summit, but they are prepared for the scenario that nothing really changes in reality,” said Sun Yun, director of the China program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank.
Angry at the defeat, Trump first said he had previously imposed a temporary 10% global tariff Increase it to 15% As well as following alternative routes for import duties. He raised the issue of tariffs by pointing to China, which poses the greatest challenge to US economic, technological and military dominance.
“China had hundreds of billions of dollars in surpluses with the United States. They rebuilt China. They rebuilt the military. We built China’s military by letting that happen,” Trump told reporters on Friday. “I have a great relationship with President Xi, but he respects our country now.”
The White House confirmed that Trump will travel to China from March 31 to April 2 to meet with President Xi Jinping.
Xi Jinping is unlikely to “flaunt or brandish” the Supreme Court ruling aggressively when he meets with Trump, and will likely choose instead to try to strengthen his relationship with the US president, said Ali Wein, a senior research and advocacy adviser focusing on US China policy at the International Crisis Group.
The sooner Xi can do that, Wayne said, “the more likely it is that the fragile trade truce between the United States and China will take hold in earnest and that Trump will be amenable to security concessions that give China greater freedom to maneuver in Asia.”
Asked to comment on the implications of the court ruling, Chinese Embassy spokesman Liu Bingyu said that tariff and trade wars do not serve the interests of either country. He called on Beijing and Washington to work together to “provide greater certainty and stability for China-US economic and trade cooperation and the global economy.”
The court’s decision also creates something new Uncertainty for other US trading partnersin Asia and elsewhere, especially those that have Reaching business deals To calm the initial unrest caused by Trump’s tariffs.
“I expect most Asian partners to proceed cautiously, with existing agreements largely holding up as both sides work to address the fallout in the coming weeks,” said Dan Kritenbrink, a partner in the Asia Group who served as assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific Affairs in the Biden administration.
He said he would monitor the impact on Japan before Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi Planned visit to Washington In March. Japan, a close ally of the United States, has witnessed this Deteriorating relations with Beijing In recent months.
Shortly after Trump returned to the White House early last year, he said: Activate the emergency law He imposed 20% tariffs on Chinese goods over what he said was Beijing’s failure to stem the flow of chemicals that can be used to make fentanyl.
Trump later used the same emergency authority to impose sweeping reciprocal tariffs on several countries, including 34% on China. Beijing responded, imposing tariffs Temporarily rose to triple digits Before both sides come down.
After several rounds of trade talks and Summit between Trump and Xi In South Korea in October, the two countries agreed to a one-year truce with a 10% basic tariff. Trump also reduced the so-called fentanyl tariff to 10%, while Beijing resumed its cooperation in restricting the export of more materials that can be used to make opioids.
Wendy Cutler, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute, said she suspects the Trump administration could quickly come up with an alternative plan. She added that the Office of the US Trade Representative is actively investigating China’s compliance with a previous trade agreement and this may be a backup plan for the administration. If China is found not to be fulfilling its obligations under the agreement, the US government is permitted under the Trade Act to impose tariffs.
Rep. Ro Khanna, the top Democrat on the House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party, urged the administration to come up with a new, tougher strategy that “holds China accountable for its unfair trade practices and strengthens the collective power of our allies and partners.”
Trump has already shown a willingness to use other legal powers to impose tariffs on China, as he did during his first term, and Beijing may assume that tariffs can be maintained or re-established “with only modest difficulty,” said Gabriel Wildau, a managing director who focuses on political risk analysis in China at consulting firm Teneo.
But Beijing also hopes it can convince Trump to reduce these tariffs in exchange for purchase guarantees or other concessions, Wildau said.