The night before Thanksgiving, the Toronto Blue Jays made the first big splash, signing right-hander Dylan Cease to a seven-year, $210 million contract. Toronto then added right-hander Cody Ponce, who returns to the United States after a successful stint in the KBO.
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But beyond Cease and Ponce, we’ve seen little movement among starting pitchers. Most of the notable starting pitching action so far has involved teams retaining their starters, with Shane Bieber opting to join the Blue Jays and Shota Imanaga and Brandon Woodruff accepting qualifying offers from the Cubs and Brewers, respectively.
Two other names returning to their old stomping grounds are Michael King, who re-signed with the Padres on a three-year, $75 million deal, and Merrill Kelly, who returned to the Diamondbacks on a two-year, $40 million deal.
But with just a few days left in December, most of the best starting pitchers in this free agent class (names like Framber Valdez, Ranger Suarez, Zac Gallen and Tatsuya Imai) are still available. And while teams are interested and committed to those players, they are clearly taking their time.
The lack of movement in the starting pitching market could be due to several reasons.
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One is that teams want to exhaust all their options in the trade market before making the financial commitment of acquiring a top starting free agent. If teams can move prospect capital to add someone like Miami Marlins right-hander Edward Cabrera or Washington Nationals left-hander MacKenzie Gore instead of spending $100 million to $200 million to sign Suarez or Valdez, many will see it as a win.
We’ve already seen a few trades of this nature, with the Boston Red Sox acquiring Johan Oviedo and Sonny Gray, the Houston Astros acquiring Mike Burrows and the Baltimore Orioles paying a significant prospect price to acquire three years of Shane Baz.
Meanwhile, for teams looking for the best of the best options, Tarik Skubal remains a tantalizing possibility. While the Tigers would demand a loot to move their ace, there’s no denying that any team with the prospect capital and need for starting pitching would be very interested, even for a one-year rental.
The other factor floating in the background of this year’s offseason is the uncertainty of what comes after next season, with a potential lockout on the horizon once the collective bargaining agreement expires. With teams unsure what the future holds, some could be trying to protect themselves by avoiding having too many multi-year deals on the books after 2026.
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Still, the next starting pitching domino to fall will likely be Imai, whose release window expires at 5 p.m. ET on January 2. The 27-year-old Japanese right-hander is considered one of the best starters available, and his signing will likely spur some movement in the markets for Suárez and Valdez, as well as others such as Gallen, Lucas Giolito and Nick Martínez.
Many contending teams still need starting pitchers, including the Cubs, Mets and Giants, so this stalemate will eventually end. As the calendar turns to January, especially with Imai’s deadline approaching, action in the starting pitching market is expected to pick up.
After all, pitchers only have about seven weeks left before spring training begins.