Washington– president donald trump, In his return to the White House, he showed greater ambivalence toward Taiwan, an approach that had previously raised questions Top of the week With the Chinese President Xi Jinping On whether the American leader could be open to seeking support again for Island democracy Which Beijing considers a breakaway province.
Trump in December allowed $11 billion arms package for Taiwan – the largest arms sale ever to the island – but he has not yet gone ahead with the delivery, or even admitted it Discuss the sale with Shi. He complained that Taiwan “stole” America’s semiconductor business Taiwan called for payment United States to protect.
Meanwhile, Trump, with the threat of massive tariffs, has been egging Taipei on Approval of huge investments In the semiconductor industry in the United States and A multi-billion dollar purchase of US liquefied natural gas and crude oil.
His speech fuels speculation in Beijing, Taipei and Washington about America’s commitment to helping the island defend itself and whether Trump can be persuaded to compromise on the long-standing US position on the island.
Retired US Navy Admiral Mark Montgomery said Taiwan supporters are concerned that Taipei will be “on the list” when Trump and Xi sit down for talks.
“I worry that we have a transactional president, and a transactional opportunity could arise, and then we’ll be challenged,” said Montgomery, who now works at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a Washington think tank that supports strong American support for Taiwan.
The Chinese have indicated that they intend to make Taiwan a state The central part of the conversations between Xi and Trump this week. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi raised the Taiwan issue during a phone call with the Foreign Minister Marco Rubio To prepare for the trip, and He urged the United States to “make the right choices.” Regarding its policies towards the island in order to maintain “stability” between the two countries, according to a statement by the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs.
But Rubio said US policy has not changed. “We do not want to see any forced or coercive change in the situation,” he told reporters in Rome on Friday, adding that it would “destabilize the world.” He noted that Taiwan will not be “a feature of our trip, but it will certainly be an item that will be discussed.”
White House officials stressed that Trump, who also approved $330 million worth of aircraft parts for Taiwan’s military in November, has already approved larger military sales to Taiwan in the first year of his second term than the roughly $8.4 billion approved by Democratic President Joe Biden during his four years in office.
Taiwan is under pressure from the Trump administration to increase its defense spending, and lawmakers on Friday broke months of deadlock to approve a $25 billion arms purchase. This was far less than the $40 billion proposal made by Taiwan President Lai Ching-te last year. A senior Trump administration official, who spoke to reporters on the condition of anonymity under ground rules set by the White House, said it was disappointing that Parliament had not fully funded Laye’s proposal.
Taiwanese government officials They expressed concern about China’s rhetoric Before the summit, though, they also felt some comfort from Rubio’s thoughtful comments.
“(China) may try some maneuvers during the talks, but the United States has repeatedly stressed, through public and private channels, that its policy toward Taiwan has not changed,” Tsai Mingyen, director-general of the National Security Bureau, told reporters.
Chinese experts say the key question is how far Xi will try to go in his efforts to get Trump closer to Beijing’s view.
China considers self-governing Taiwan a rebellious province that could be annexed by force if necessary. Countries with which it maintains diplomatic relations are prohibited from establishing official relations with Taipei. Since establishing diplomatic relations with modern China in 1979, the United States has managed to stay within Beijing’s demands while maintaining informal support for Taiwan and supplying it with weapons.
In the context of American ambiguity regarding Taiwan, Washington acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but does not explicitly support it. The United States has also historically declared that it “does not support” Taiwan independence and opposes unilateral changes to the status quo between Taiwan and China.
But analysts say Xi may seek to persuade Trump – who has already shown a willingness to blur the lines of traditional diplomacy – to ease ties with Taiwan by imposing restrictions on US arms sales or imposing informal arms restrictions. Visits by prominent American officials To the island. In February, Trump indicated that he had broken with long-standing US policy I consulted with Xi on arms sales to Taiwan.
“Even if we don’t see anything as dramatic as a formal shift in declarative policy, this time, there’s always a risk that President Trump might make an unexpected statement given that he’s not necessarily someone who appreciates the nuances of long-term policy language,” said Patricia Kim, of the China Assessment Project at the Brookings Institution in Washington.
The dispute between Japan and China, an ally of the United States, has raised speculation about the strength of Trump’s commitment to Taiwan. In November, Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaishi She said that the Chinese attack on Taiwan raises concerns in the region and could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, requiring the use of force.
Trump made back-to-back calls with Takaishi and Xi that same month, though he has remained largely silent about the dispute.
“I know their relationship is a little strained,” Trump said while hosting Takaishi for talks in March. He added: “I will speak in praise of Japan when I am in China with President Xi.”
Additionally, Trump’s support for Taiwan faced scrutiny after the election US National Defense Strategy 2026 The direct reference to Al Jazeera was deleted.
One of Taiwan’s cards is its strong semiconductor sector – the largest in the world
Which the United States depends on to maintain its superiority in the advanced technology race against China.
“Trump is at the very least aware of the role Taiwan plays in the economic growth of the United States,” said Lev Nachman, a political science professor at National Taiwan University. “So I think that’s the major silver lining in believing that nothing radical will change in terms of policy toward Taiwan.”
Edgard Kagan, a former senior State Department official who worked under Trump and Biden on East Asia policy issues, said that while Trump is known for his transactional nature, his administration did not view the difficult aspects of the US-China relationship as “tradeable” issues that could be traded.
“The president understands leverage,” said Kagan, who is now chair of China studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “And from my experience in meetings with him, he has a very acute sense of how to use it.” “So I think the idea that there would be a trade where the president is sort of sacrificing American interests in Taiwan in order to get other things — I think is unlikely based on my own experience of how he works.”
Ultimately, whether Al Jazeera emerges from the Xi-Trump summit on a stronger or weaker footing will likely be judged by the leaders’ public statements.
After his last face-to-face meeting with Xi in October, Trump claimed that Xi had not raised the issue and that Chinese officials “know the consequences” of military action against Taiwan.
“I think the best scenario Taiwan can hope for is not talking about Taiwan publicly, or at least, minimally,” Nachman said.
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Maestrino reported from Taipei. Associated Press writer Giada Zampano in Rome contributed to this report.