Large European companies are expected to post a strong quarter later this month and early May thanks to their trading divisions. While the oil majors are not reporting trading profits, BP, Shell, TotalEnergies and Equinor all signaled they are making a lot of money from oil and gas trading in what some say is the worst supply crisis in history.
Shell was the first to report “significantly higher” profits from oil and gas trading in its financial report for the first quarter of the year. The company attributed the expected windfall to extreme volatility in international oil and gas markets resulting from the disruption of production and exports from the Middle East.
That said, Shell also reported that its own oil and gas production for the quarter would be lower than the final quarter of 2025, between 880,000 bpd and 920,000 bpd in oil equivalent, compared with 948,000 barrels per day in the fourth quarter of 2025. The company noted that this reflected “the impact of the Middle East conflict on Qatar volumes.” Shell will report first quarter results on May 7.
BP was next, reporting in an update that it expected an “exceptional” result in oil trading for the first quarter of 2026, amid extreme price volatility. While those who look solely at the futures market may find it disconcerting that big companies are talking about extreme volatility, those who focus on physical oil prices would not be surprised. Earlier this month, the price of a barrel of Brent for immediate delivery soared to $150.
BP, which will report its full first-quarter earnings on April 28, noted in its update that all of its earnings estimates “include impacts associated with the current situation in the Middle East and current market conditions resulting in increased volatility in crude oil, natural gas and refined products prices in the latter part of the first quarter.” With fuel shortages already emerging in some parts of the world, the strength in business performance may extend to the second quarter as well.
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TotalEnergies was the third major company to boast higher profits from oil and gas trading when it reports its financials on April 29. The company said in its first-quarter results update that the war between the United States, Israel and Iran had effectively shut down up to 15% of TotalEnergies’ global oil and gas production, which also represents a tenth of the company’s cash flow from upstream operations.
However, higher international prices for both oil and LNG would significantly boost TotalEnergies’ trading profits, the company said, noting that “integrated LNG results and cash flow are expected to be significantly higher than in the fourth quarter of 2025, supported by a 10% increase in LNG production compared to the fourth quarter and strong trading activities benefiting from market volatility.” Additionally, production starts in Brazil and Libya had offset the loss of barrels in the Middle East, TotalEnergies said. The new companies contributed to a total first-quarter production rate that would remain stable in the fourth quarter of 2025.